Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 182046
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VALID 201200Z - 261200Z

BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL TAKE HOLD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VARIOUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BROADER
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MID-WEST...AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS...BUT THE GENERALLY COOL NATURE OF THE AIR MASS APPEARS TO
PREVENT RELATIVE-HUMIDITY FROM FALLING TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

...DAY4/TUESDAY THROUGH DAY8/SUNDAY...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE NOTION OF A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS. HERE...FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE ON
MULTIPLE DAYS NEXT WEEK AS STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF EACH PASSING TROUGH
OVERSPREAD THE PREEXISTING DRY AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN...DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE PASSING TROUGHS PRECLUDES PROBABILISTIC
DELINEATION ON MOST DAYS. THE EXCEPTION IS DAY4/TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHEN MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT...40 PERCENT
PROBABILISTIC DELINEATION OF CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS HAS
BEEN INTRODUCED. ADDITIONAL DELINEATIONS MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/STRENGTH INCREASES.

..MARSH.. 04/18/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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