Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 051551
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

VALID 051700Z - 061200Z

ONLY CHANGE TO DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS TO INCLUDE GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION
OF ELEVATED AREA ACROSS ERN ND AND FAR WRN MN. RATIONALE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

..COOK/GLEASON.. 05/05/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0246 AM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS NEWD FROM NM INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...MAINTAINING SLY FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
LATITUDINAL EXTENT OF THE GREAT PLAINS. SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MAY EXIST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH AHEAD OF RICHER
MOISTURE ADVANCING NWD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING...WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS MAINE. ELSEWHERE...A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE PAC NW...WHILE MIDLEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE
SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS.

...ERN ND...WRN MN...NERN SD...
SLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING BETWEEN A
DEEPENING NRN ROCKIES SFC LOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. RICHER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF THE REGION UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET...WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS YIELDING RH VALUES IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DURING PEAK HEATING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE INTO PARTS OF CNTRL ND/SD...WHERE RH VALUES ARE ALSO
HIGHER...WHILE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
SUB-CRITICAL WHERE LOWER RH VALUES OCCUR.

...MUCH OF MAINE...
SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY /60S TO LOW 70S/...RH
VALUES ARE STILL LIKELY TO FALL AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY A WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH...BUT 25-30 KT OF 850 MB FLOW
WILL LINGER AND SUPPORT STRONGER GUSTS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO
REACH COASTAL AREAS AND USHER IN DRIER AIR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WHERE LIGHTER RAINFALL TOTALS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVEN DAYS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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