Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 281253
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR TYNDALL...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
853 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON APRIL 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZES DEVELOPING....THEN A DECAYING COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH
A BAND OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SPRINKLES FROM M-32 NORTH. HUMIDITIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO NEAR ANYTHING CRITICAL. CONCERNS AT THIS POINT
LOOK MINIMAL FROM A WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........54 AT IGNITION...MAX 60.
RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 1 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4800-5000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (300).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........21  26  29  28  27  26
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............54  55  57  58  58  59
RH..............52  51  49  47  47  45
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  N   N   NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   4   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....3   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......300 300 200 200 200 200

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 37.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-400 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........23  16  12  14  18  22  26  30  32  36  43  47
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............58  56  54  51  48  45  43  41  39  38  37  37
RH..............47  49  52  59  68  76  79  85  89  92  96  96
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   4   3   2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  5   5
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SMOKE DISP......300 300 200 100 100 0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 58.
RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 6 TO 10 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900-6100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1000).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........53     72     61     55     77     56
WEATHER COV.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............37     38     49     57     58     58
RH..............92     92     66     51     49     47
20 FT WIND......N 0    N 1    N 4    N 7    N 8    N 9
20 FT WIND GUST.              10     15     20     20
HAINES INDEX....3      3      4      4      4      4
SMOKE DISP......0      0      200    500    900    1000

$$
FORECASTER...KEVIN FARINA
REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150428.TYNDA.01/APX



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