Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FNUS73 KICT 111424
FWSICT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TALLGRASS EAST 2...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
924 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 CDT ON APRIL 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. WEAK RIPPLES IN UPPER
FLOW WILL SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FLINT HILLS TODAY...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STAY SHOWER/STORM IN VICINITY OF TALLGRASS
THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE DON`T HESITATE TO CALL 1.800.367.5736 IF
YOU HAVE FURTHER QUESTIONS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100-4800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 20 TO 29 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........61  62  62
WEATHER COV.....        SCH
WEATHER TYPE....        RW
TSTM COV........        ISO
TEMP............72  73  72
RH..............32  33  35
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..11  11  11
20 FT WIND GUST.25  25  25
HAINES INDEX....5   5   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-2000 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 25 TO 28 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........63     67     75     83     87     88
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ISOLTD S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
TEMP............71     67     62     60     58     57
RH..............37     45     53     58     63     67
20 FT WIND......S 11   S 10   S 7    S 8    S 9    S 9
20 FT WIND GUST.25     20     15     15     20     20
HAINES INDEX....4      4      5      5      5      4

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................60 PERCENT DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-2700 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 22 TO 31 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........89        85        79        78
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TSTM COV........LIKELY    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
TEMP............56        60        69        74
RH..............72        70        61        55
20 FT WIND......S 10G20   S 10G25   S 13G30   S 13G30
HAINES INDEX....3         2         3         3

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND
50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

$$
FORECASTER...KLEINSASSER
REQUESTED BY...KRISTEN HASE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150411.TALLG.01/ICT



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