Hurricane Local Statement
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000
WTPQ81 PGUM 051652
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NOUL (06W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST WED MAY 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NOUL EDGING CLOSER TO YAP ISLAND...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON YAP AND NGULU ISLANDS OF YAP STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 138.5E

ABOUT  25 MILES EAST OF YAP
ABOUT  80 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 105 MILES NORTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 320 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR AND
ABOUT 505 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NOUL CONTINUES TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
WEST AS IT HEADS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF YAP ISLAND. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE EYE OF THE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL
STORM CROSSING THE ISLAND OF YAP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
THIS KIND OF SLOW MOVEMENT MOTION CAN BE ERRATIC...AND THE TIMING
OF EXACTLY WHEN NOUL REACHES THE ISLAND IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEGUN TO SHOW ITSELF IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

...YAP...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE EYE CROSSES THE ISLAND. SINCE THE
WIND FIELD OF NOUL IS VERY SMALL...WINDS MAY INCREASE RAPIDLY JUST
PRIOR TO THE EYE REACHING THE ISLAND. STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER
AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS CLEARLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EXISTING DAMAGING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL
INCREASE TO 65 TO 75 MPH THIS MORNING AS THE EYE APPROACHES.
DO NOT GO OUTSIDE IF WINDS DROP QUICKLY...WHICH WOULD MEAN YAP IS
IN THE EYE. WINDS WILL SUDDENLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
AT THE SAME SPEED. WHEN NOUL IS ACTUALLY MOVING AWAY...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH GRADUALLY. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 45
MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEPENDING UPON THE CONTINUED
MOVEMENT OF THE TYPHOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 18 TO 22 FEET WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE EYE
REACHES SHORE AND CROSSES YAP EARLY THIS MORNING. COASTAL
INUNDATION IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
THE CASE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND NEARER TO THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
IF NOUL PASSES JUST SOUTH OF YAP...TYPHOON FORCE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CAUSE MORE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION IN COLONIA (TAMIL) HARBOR AND
LAGOON DUE TO A HIGHER STORM SURGE AND STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
YAP HAS A 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 10 MB...MEANING THE CENTER OF
NOUL IS NOW QUITE CLOSE. YAP HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN 8 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...MOST LIKELY PRODUCING LOCAL FLOODING
AND RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF MUDSLIDES. STAY AWAY FROM AREAS OF
STEEP SLOPES IF POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS SLOWLY MOVING STORM.

...NGULU...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT THE CURRENT TRACK OF NOUL
KEEPS THE OUTER RANGE OF DAMAGING WINDS CLOSE TO NGULU...JUST TO THE
NORTH. AVOID VENTURING NEAR REEFS WHERE HAZARDOUS SURF MAY BE
OCCURRING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND
SURF SUBSIDE IN A FEW DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS NOUL STARTS MOVING AWAY.
INUNDATION OF AROUND 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 900 AM CHST.

$$

R.EDSON


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