Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 061603
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1103 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

                     VALID MAY 6 THROUGH MAY 11

   ...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance moved across portions of the
Hill Country and Central Texas overnight. Thereafter, a complex
of showers and thunderstorms developed in and around the
Austin, Tx area. This activity was responsible for storms
producing 6-7 inches of rainfall across Williamson and Bastrop
counties. This rainfall also caused some minor flooding across
several basins, within the Brazos river system. Currently, the
complex of showers and thunderstorms has weakened, and is moving
towards the southwest. Rainfall amounts are currently averaging
close to 1.00 inch per hour. Elsewhere, very light showers are
moving over Northeast Texas, however this activity is not
expected to cause any significant issues.

Overall, based on the upper level pattern, showers and
thunderstorms will continue to impact some part of the WGRFC
area each day, through early next week. Portions of North and
Northwest Texas will likely see the greatest impacts with this
ongoing activity. Average rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are possible. Also, higher than normal flows and/or minor flooding
is also possible, however widespread moderate or major flooding
is not expected through the end of the week.

By this weekend, an upper level low will begin slowly approaching
from the west. As this system moves closer to the WGRFC region,
showers and thunderstorms will once again develop over portions
of West and Central Texas on Saturday. By Sunday/Monday, showers
and thunderstorm activity will become more widespread across North
and East Texas, as a cold front and dry line move towards the east.
Rainfall amounts of up to 2.00 are possible over these areas, as
well as the possibility of moderate flooding occurring over the
Sabine and Trinity River systems.

We will continue to monitor the situation for possibility of
additional flooding, over the weekend through early next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of northwest
Texas and southeast Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for North and
Central Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions North Texas...mainly along and North of
I-20.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of northwest Texas...mainly along and
slightly west of I-35.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00 inches
are forecast for all areas along the I-35 corridor.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. Recent precipitation events have brought drought
relief to parts of Texas.  In Texas, about a third of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (31%), and about 6% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, a little
over half of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
(56%). Lake levels in the extreme drought areas of Texas have
responded some, but many are at or near historical lows for this
time of year.  The rainfall expected over the next five days over
the WGRFC area will likely be heavy enough to produce significant
runoff over roughly the eastern half of the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues along the mainstem of the Neches and
Angelina River system. Area lakes remain full and flood control
reservoirs continue their releases. The  stage on the Neches River
near Town Bluff (TBFT2) is being driven by releases out of B.A.
Steinhagen lake.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend continues full 2-unit continuous power generation.
Deweyville (DWYT2) will remain above minor flood levels through the
forecast period.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Heavy rainfall occurred overnight in the East Yegua Creek (DEYT2),
Middle Yegua Creek (DMYT2), and Davidson Creek watersheds.  All
three forecast points for these basins are forecast to crest near
or above flood stage.

...Colorado Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Heavy rain overnight east of Austin has generated a flashy rise on
several tributaries of the Colorado River, especially Wilbarger
Creek. Water is still rising, but has just started getting into the
mainstem of the river and should start rising at Bastrop (BRTT2)
this afternoon.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lake Livingston continues to remain full and is passing any extra
water from upstream through it`s flood gates. The Elm Fork Trinity
River near Carrollton (CART2) has risen slightly above action stage
as flows upstream have been increased. On the mainstem  downstream
both Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) remain high.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Minor flooding continues in the Neches and lower Sabine River
basins.  Another series of storms will affect many portions of
Texas bringing mostly beneficial rains.  Late Sunday and Monday
are forecast to produce heavier rainfall totals for the eastern
half of Texas mainly affecting the basins that have been
experiencing flooding for the past few weeks.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


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