Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 040711
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
311 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF LOW PRES...POSSIBLE A SUB-
TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TYPE LOW...OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. PLS CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST OPC FCSTS AND
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NEAR TERM...HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE E AWAY FROM THE OFF WTRS TODAY.
LATE EVE ASCAT AND RSCAT DATA INDICATED MAX WINDS NR 20 KT
OCCURRING OVR FAR ERN NT2 OFF WTRS WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
20 KT ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER E TONITE WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING W OVR CENTRAL NT2 OFF WTRS TONITE...AND PERSISTING INTO
WED. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONITE.
SOME INCREASE IN WINDS IS STILL EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVR
NRN NT2 AND NT2 OFF WTRS TODAY INTO TONITE. WE WILL CONT TO USE
THE 10M GFS WINDS OVR THE RELATIVELY COOLER SSTS N OF THE GULF
STREAM OR ROUGHLY OVR NT1 AND NRN NT2 OFF WTRS FOR TODAY THRU
TUE. THIS WILL CAP WINDS AT 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE SE OVR NT1 OFF WTRS TUE...REACH NRN NT2 OFF WTRS TUE
NITE...AND THEN STALL OVR NRN NT2 WTRS WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE
INTO NT1 OFF WTRS.

LONG TERM...FOR THE LATE TUE NITE THRU FRI NITE TIME PERIOD WE
WILL PRIMARILY BE USING THE 00Z ECMWF MDL GUID AS IT APPEARS TO
BE A DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER 00Z GFS...NAM...
CANADIAN GUID...AND THE WEAKER AND SLOWER UKMET GUID...REGARDING
LOW PRES LIFTING N TOWARD THE OFF WTRS FROM THE BAHAMAS. THE
STRONGER MDL GUID WOULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE SRN NT2
WTRS BY WED NITE. FOR NOW...WE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF
GUID WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH TAFB. THIS WILL KEEP GALES OUT OF
THE EARLY AM FCST PACKAGE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH OPC...TAFB
AND NHC CONTG TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT EVOLVES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z WNA WW3 MDL GUID AND 00Z ECMWF WAM WV GUID
APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL OVR THE OFF WTRS PER THE
LATEST OBS...ALTIMETER DATA...AND RA1 SEA STATE ANALYSIS. FOR THE
EARLY AM FCST PACKAGE WE WILL USE A 50-50 BLEND OF THESE TWO WV
MDLS FOR TODAY INTO TUE NITE...AND THEN AS WE TREND THE FCST
TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF FOR WINDS WE WILL TREND THE FCST TOWARD THE
00Z ECMWF WAM FOR WV HT GUID LTR TUE NITE THRU FRI NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...BOTH THE 00Z ESTOFS AND
ETSS MDL GUID BRINGS A 1 TO 2 FT SURGE TO THE GEORGIA...CAROLINA
COASTS BY THU. AT THIS TIME OPC BELIEVES THAT THESE LVLS MAY BE A
BIT TOO HIGH...AS ARE CURRENT FCST IS FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE
WEAKER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION REGARDING LOW PRES ORGANIZING OFF THE
SE COAST DURING MID TO LATE WEEK.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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