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000 FXUS63 KIWX 232325 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 625 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009 .AVIATION/18Z-18Z/ WESTERN EDGE OF MID CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT FWA WITH VFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND FCST SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOWING FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING 06Z-12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF LOW APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS SHOULD CAUSE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN OUT PERIOD OF TAFS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... STRATUS CONTG TO ERODE OVER NWRN PORTION OF CWA WITH STRATO/ALTO CU PERSISTING ACROSS THE SE AND CLEAR SLOT IN BTWN. EXPECT CLEARING OF STRATUS WILL CONT ACROSS THE NW THIS EVE WITH HIGHER CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF CWA LIFTING NE AHEAD OF WK SHRTWV SEEN LIFTING NE THROUGH SWRN INDIANA ON WATER VAPOR ATTM. LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIP AHEAD OF SHRTWV TODAY AND WITH LITTLE CHG IN MOISTURE/FORCING AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVE... SCALED BACK LOW CHC SHOWERS TO CHC SPRINKLES ACROSS ERN PORTION OF CWA. WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST AND LIGHT WINDS AND SOME PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW WHICH WILL MOVE EAST TO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW, SHOULD CAUSE STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. GOING HIGHS FOR TUESDAY STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS LOW LEVEL WAA AND INCREASING GRADIENT/MIXING EXPECTED TO ALLOW HIGHS IN THE L-M50S ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE CLOUD COVER. MS VALLEY LOW WILL MOVE NE TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY WED MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING CDFNT SWEEPING EAST INTO SE MI/WRN OH BY THAT TIME. ALTHOUGH GULF REMAINS SHUT OFF AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS FCST AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ALONG WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK TO SE OF UPR LEVEL SHRTWV... SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SYSTEM`S CDFNT... FCST LIKELY POPS SPREADING FROM W-E ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT TUE NGT. ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO GOING LOWS FOR TUE NGT WITH CAA EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO THE L40S BY WED MORNING. && .LONG TERM... SW TROUGH OVR NE CO EMBEDDED WITHIN NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY EWD SHRT TERM W/FNTL RAINBAND CROSSING AREA TWD THE END OF THE SHRT TERM. SECONDARY SW AMPLIFYING RAPIDLY SEWD WED WILL SPURN DEEP N`EASTER DVLPMNT ALG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND BRING ABOUT A BRIEF BUT CHILLY BOUT OF COLD AIR HERE BFR MODERATING SOMEWHAT NXT WEEKEND AS SHRT AMPLITUDE RIDGING BLDS IN WAKE OF SYS AHD OF RENEWED DEEP TROUGH DVLPMNT INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. LACK OF A SIG RTN LL MSTR PLUME OF THE GOMEX AHD OF LEAD SYS PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER W/POPS WED-THU NIGHT W/H7/5 LOW TRACK OVERTOP CWA AND POINTING TO GREATER DEEP LYR ASCENT PASSING WELL N/NW. HWVR COLD POCKET ALOFT AND VEERING LL FLW OF LK MI SHLD PROMOTE A FAIRLY BROAD NW-SE ORIENTED RAINBAND THU AFTN/THU NIGHT ON BACKSIDE OF CLOSING SECONDARY SYS. AGAIN THOUGH TEMPS MARGINAL FOR SNOW AND DO NOT XPC ANY ACCUMULATION TO SPEAK OF. OTHERWISE CHILLY TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE PD. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...HOLSTEN AVIATION...LOGSDON
