Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 152045
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
444 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VALID 00Z THU APR 16 2015 - 00Z SUN APR 19 2015

...CENTRAL ROCKIES...

A SPRING UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE AS AN UPPER LOW PINCHES OFF OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
DRAW MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE TERRAIN.  THE
BRUNT OF THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD FALL DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD/THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.  SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS COULD SEE EVENT TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL DECREASE SHARPLY HEADING EAST INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  BY
DAY 3/FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW...BUT MODELS STILL SEEM TO
BE STRUGGLING WITH SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.  TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE VARYING SNOW TOTALS AND EXACT LOCATIONS...THE WPC FORECAST
WAS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN CONTINUITY/NAM/ECMWF/SREF MEAN.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL WFO`S FOR ALL WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES...INCLUDING WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

GERHARDT


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