Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 180127
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
927 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK. CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING
TO SCATTER OUT...THOUGH A FEW STRAGGLERS AROUND THE 5K RANGE
REMAIN. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE NW...AND
SHOULD BE NEARLY OVER MUCH OF KY BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS WE
CONTINUE TO CLEAR...AND WINDS CEASE...STILL EXPECTING SOME DEGREE
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA AND MUCH OF THE SURROUNDING
AREAS. KEPT PREVIOUS FOG FORECAST...BUT WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT
TO SOME OF THE MORE EASTERN VALLEYS AS WELL. WHILE THERE COULD BE
A FEW DENSER AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER...STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF
THE CWA TO REMAIN ABOVE 1/4 MILE IN THE PATCHY TO AREA COVERAGE
CATEGORY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST 9PM OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS DRYING SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF
THE REMAINING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN
DUE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TN REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE ARE CLEARER SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

BY SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
LOW...CROSSING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE OH
AND TN VALLEYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOIST AIR INTO EAST KENTUCKY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAKING IT INTO POINTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH
FOR YOU TO ENJOY A WARM AND SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...CONTINUING THE WET WEATHER TREND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE FOCUS ON LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN
ACTIVITY AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BETTER
SEVERE THREAT IF THE PASSAGE IS LATER IN THE DAY.

SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY. THE MODELS
THEN START TO DIVERGE MORE THEREAFTER...MAKING FOR A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE ECMWF LINGERS CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH BRIEF SHOTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...WHILE THE GFS FLATTENS THE FLOW AND ALLOWS FOR
DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE WSW. FOR NOW...SIDED A BIT MORE
WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER ECMWF...GIVEN ITS OVERALL BETTER
PERFORMANCE THIS FAR OUT COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS
RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THAN THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND THEN LOOK TO
AVERAGE NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH A FEW INTERMITTENT VFR CLOUDS...ARE
CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER EASTERN KY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LATER
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KEPT WITH MVFR VIS
IN THE LOZ...JKL...SJS...SYM TAF SITES AND ALTERNATE MINS AT THE
SME TAF SITE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...EXACT VIS RESTRICTIONS
AT EACH INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE COULD VARY. BY 12 TO 13Z...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOG TO SCATTER OUT...AND MOSTLY CLEAR VFR
CONDITIONS TO ENSUE. EXPECT SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM...THOUGH NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JVM/SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW


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