Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 270535
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES
NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THEY SLIP SOUTHWARD...LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. WILL
JUST MASSAGE THE LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND BLEND INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE
SKY COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. DRIER HAS
ADVECTED IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW THE MID 30S.
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE REGION WAS UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS OR SO
AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW DURING THAT TIME.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HEIGHTS ARE SHOULD RISE LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. PENDING ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...DEWPOINTS IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MIGHT FALL FAR ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS
WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW
AS DEWPOINTS MAY END UP A TAD HIGH FOR THIS. NONETHELESS...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.

THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU AND CU WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON MONDAY. THE CU SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW DUE TO CAPPING
BELOW 700 MB. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND ASSUMING CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FROST WOULD APPEAR A
BIT MORE PROBABLE THAN TONIGHT FOR THE DEEPER OR NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN DRY
ENOUGH AIR BY THAT POINT...DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT FOR THE PATCHY VALLEY FROST THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AGAIN...CHANCES APPEAR A BIT HIGHER FOR
THIS WITH POSSIBLY MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PATCHY
VALLEY FROST TONIGHT...IF AT ALL...VERY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL GET AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST...SO POPS PEAK IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR


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