Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 040701
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
301 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENT
OF THE SHORT TERM. PLAN VIEW MODEL OUTPUT IS FINALLY TRYING TO STEER
AWAY FROM ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS WOULD MAKE SENSE
GIVEN THE STRONG LACK OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL POINTING AT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
SOME ISL/SCT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME SLIGHT DECOUPLING OF WINDS. DID
NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THE LATEST NAM12
RUN HAS ACTUALLY MOISTENED UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THINK THIS MAY STILL BE A BIT OVERDONE...AND NEAR SURFACE DRY
LAYER SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY PRECIP THREAT. OTHERWISE... LIGHT SRLY
FLOW AND GOOD SUN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT GENERALLY LOW 80S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR
HIGHS...WHILE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURE. THIS COULD
MEAN SOME SIZABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES FOR VALLEYS BETWEEN
MORNING LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS NOW SEEM LESS CERTAIN WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT MODELS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN OVER AGGRESSIVE ON SURFACE MOISTURE...TENDS TO SUPPORT A
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL STAY CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR
DEW POINTS AS THEY HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON SURFACE MOISTURE
LATELY...ALTHOUGH EVEN TODAY THEY WERE A BIT HIGH. THESE LOWER
DEW POINTS TODAY REALLY CONFIRMS IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ANY RAINFALL THIS UPCOMING WEEK. NOT ONLY
DO WE HAVE MOISTURE CONCERNS...BUT WE ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL CAPPING TO ALSO OVERCOME...SO THE PIECES JUST DON`T FIT
TOGETHER FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...NOT MUCH CHANGING ON THAT FRONT EITHER. LOOK FOR
LOWER 80S EACH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE MID
50S AT NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S EACH NIGHT. THE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT NIGHT THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE
VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT AND SLIGHT DECOUPLING OF WINDS...BUT
TAF SITES SHOULD STILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT AND WINDS WILL DIE OUT ONCE MORE BY TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW



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