Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 172100
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
500 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS DRYING SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF
THE REMAINING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN
DUE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TN REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE ARE CLEARER SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

BY SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
LOW...CROSSING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE OH
AND TN VALLEYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOIST AIR INTO EAST KENTUCKY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAKING IT INTO POINTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH
FOR YOU TO ENJOY A WARM AND SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASUREABLE PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...CONTINUING THE WET WEATHER TREND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE FOCUS ON LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN
ACTIVITY AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BETTER
SEVERE THREAT IF THE PASSAGE IS LATER IN THE DAY.

SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY. THE MODELS
THEN START TO DIVERGE MORE THEREAFTER...MAKING FOR A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE ECMWF LINGERS CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH BRIEF SHOTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...WHILE THE GFS FLATTENS THE FLOW AND ALLOWS FOR
DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE WSW. FOR NOW...SIDED A BIT MORE
WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER ECMWF...GIVEN ITS OVERALL BETTER
PERFORMANCE THIS FAR OUT COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS
RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THAN THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND THEN LOOK TO
AVERAGE NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT GIVEN RECENT VIS IMAGERY TRENDS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE
REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE BREAKING UP AND CIGS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND SO
HAVE PUT IFR VIS IN THE LOZ...JKL...SJS...SYM TAF SITES AND
ALTERNATE MINS AT THE SME TAF SITE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AROUND 13Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM/SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM


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