Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271147
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
747 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN SOME OF OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE FOG IS DENSE IN SPOTS AND HAS BEEN
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES. THE
FORECAST GRIDS WERE UPDATED THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FOG...AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS
THE FOG. THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY 9 AM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT CHILLY AS
WELL...WITH LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 40 ON AREA RIDGES...AND INTO
THE MID 30S IN THE DEEPER MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN OUR DEEPER NORTHEASTERN
VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD CAUSE ANY
ISSUES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON TAP DURING
THE DAY TIME PERIODS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

MODEL TRENDS ARE POINTING TOWARD ANOTHER DAMP PERIOD COMING
UP...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. A CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN KY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT MIDWEEK...A NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE/PHASE WITH IT...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL
UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING FROM KY SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE COAST IN
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW
TURNS NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY.
WE REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP WITH THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...ONLY PESKY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORESEEN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT
IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS. THE SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST BEFORE THE WEEKEND ARRIVES AND LEAVES US WITH A
WARMING TREND AND DRIER WEATHER. MODELS GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
ON SUNDAY FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER MISSOURI AND
HEADING EAST INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AND HAVE OPTED FOR SUB-20 PERCENT
POPS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 9 AM. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL


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