Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 241952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE
STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE
MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE SEVERITY OF THE STORM. SO HAVE
LOWERED VIS TO ALTERNATE MINS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER



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