Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 012005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 40S...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A FEW 30S SHOWING UP. THIS WILL ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY VALLEY FOG THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A
BIT MILDER CONDITIONS AS SUNSHINE RETURNS IN FULL FORCE...WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AN OVERALL QUIET STRETCH OF TIME IS IN STORE. GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO GENERATE A BIT OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES
IN A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS...SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP. LAPSE
RATES ARE WEAK AND MID-UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS SUB-20 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE RECOVERY MAY OCCUR THROUGH AIR MASS
MODIFICATION SO THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

LAST OF THE MVFR CIGS WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEAVING
BEHIND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
FORECAST LOWS RIGHT NOW ARE RIGHT ABOUT WHERE CURRENT DEW POINTS
RESIDE. HOWEVER...IF LOWS END UP COOLER WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WE COULD
SEE MORE FOG THAN CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS AS THE GUIDANCE REALLY IS NOT HITTING IT
VERY HARD TONIGHT AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS



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