Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 020018
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
818 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AND
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. IT APPEARS LATER TONIGHT WE WILL BE CLEAR
FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP...DRASTICALLY IN SOME LOCATIONS...SUCH AS
THE FAR EASTERN DEEPER VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS AS WELL SOME OF THE
VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE INTERESTING SITUATION HERE THOUGH IS
THAT DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT...SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS IS APPEARING TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT HI RES MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND PLUNGING TEMPS WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING AND AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE DEEPER VALLEY TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES AND KEPT THE PATCHY FOG IN ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING COVERAGE AND RESIDENCE TIME WILL NOT SUGGEST ANY
HEADLINE IS NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 40S...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A FEW 30S SHOWING UP. THIS WILL ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY VALLEY FOG THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A
BIT MILDER CONDITIONS AS SUNSHINE RETURNS IN FULL FORCE...WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AN OVERALL QUIET STRETCH OF TIME IS IN STORE. GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO GENERATE A BIT OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES
IN A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS...SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP. LAPSE
RATES ARE WEAK AND MID-UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS SUB-20 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE RECOVERY MAY OCCUR THROUGH AIR MASS
MODIFICATION SO THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE OR
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE TAF SITES. EXPECTING TO SEE SME AND LOZ
GET SOCKED IN THE MOST...THOUGH LOZ SHOULD BE THE ONLY LOCATION
THAT REACHED FIELD MINS. ALL FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH A 6
KFT SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPING BY NOON AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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