Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 171210
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
810 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
JUST TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
THIS HAS ALSO SPAWNED A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. RECENT RADAR
RETURNS HINT AT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAYBE DEVELOPING FURTHER
SOUTH SO HAVE LEFT POPS IN THROUGH MIDDAY. AS WELL HAVE PUT FOG IN
THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY...AS WELL A MOIST SURFACE LAYER AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW MOVING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MI IS POISED TO
SLOWLY CREEP SOUTHEAST. IN THIS AREA OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...A BIT OF CLEARING MAY MAKE IT INTO EAST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE AREA MAY
RESULT IN SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAWN. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A TOUGH CALL WITH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
TO COVER THIS BUT WILL ALSO MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAWN.
IN ADDITION TO THIS...A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH SLIDING EAST AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS. HI RES MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR DO HINT AT THIS INTO THE DAY AS THIS TROUGH
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH. WITH NO REAL SURFACE FEATURE THIS ACTIVITY
IS TIED TO...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDDAY AND
ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME CLEAR SKIES LOOK
TO DEVELOP. THIS MAY POSE AS A BETTER FOG SET UP AND MAY NEED TO
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. BY SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE BASE OF
THE LOW...CROSSING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOIST AIR INTO EAST KENTUCKY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAKING MAKING IT INTO POINTS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT AND THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE
DESERT SW WILL FINALLY BEGIN PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...JET
ENERGY... AND SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST PWATS BETWEEN 1.2 AND AOA 1.4 INCHES DURING THIS
PERIOD AS COLUMN SATURATES...THEREFORE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE INTENSITY AT TIMES. GIVEN THE VERY
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT
ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AND ALSO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DOES LOOK TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS MENTIONED
ABOVE AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TWO PART SYSTEM AS ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UP TO THIS
POINT WE DO SEE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM.

PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BREAKDOWN THE PATTERN WITH MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW AND COOLER AIR USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGHS TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TO EVEN LOWER 40S TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE EXISTS IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND. THIS
WILL BRING SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME 2 TO 3 KFT CEILINGS
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THIS MORNING.
AFTERWARD...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AND SO HAVE PUT IFR VIS IN ALL THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.