Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 050521
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
121 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS PORTION OF EASTERN KY THIS
EVENING. THESE ARE STREAMING IN FROM AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS OH/IN. THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY NORTH WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KY...WHICH
IS LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK
TONIGHT WITH UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE DURING
THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW LEVEL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES STILL WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE
RADIATING CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
RIDGE/VALLEY DIFFERENCES FOR LOWS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SIZABLE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY DRY AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL WORK WEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 80S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO
PLAY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE FEATURE INLAND...WHICH WOULD HELP
WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN OUR AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE WHICH
WOULD HELP KEEP A CAP ON ANY SHOWERS THAT TRY TO FORM UNDER THE
RIDGE. SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS ON THURSDAY WHERE THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS AN UL TROUGH PUSHES EWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS COMING AFTERNOON AGAIN...FADING
OUT BY THE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BELOW 5KTS. WHILE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JMW


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