Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 051043
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
643 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST GIVEN
THE LACK OF EVIDENCE ON CURRENT OBS OR SATELLITE. IF ANY FOG IS
IN THE VALLEYS IT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT HOUR AS THE
SUN CONTINUES TO RISE ANYWAYS. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES WITH THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE THEY WERE ON PAR WITH
CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH YET ANOTHER RAPID INCREASE INTO THE 70
DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED BY NOON OR JUST BEFORE. OTHERWISE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK...WITH NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT ZONE
FORECAST NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE SHORT TERM. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
STILL POINTING AT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISL/SCT
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST
MOISTURE LIKELY DIRECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE SE. DESPITE
MODELS TRYING TO PUT PRECIP BACK IN ACROSS THIS SAME AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...STILL BELIEVE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL WIN OUT
AND SO KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SRLY FLOW AND
GOOD SUN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOW
TO MID 80S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR HIGHS...WHILE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE RIDGE
VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SIZABLE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES FOR VALLEYS BETWEEN MORNING LOWS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE HOWEVER ON THURSDAY TO
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS OUR TERRAIN...SO MAINTAINED
SMALL CHANCES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP A LID ON MOST
CONVECTION BESIDES A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF POPS TO OUR AREA.
STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS COMING AFTERNOON AGAIN...FADING
OUT BY THE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BELOW 5KTS. WHILE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW



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