Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 161607
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1207 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE REQUIRED TODAY. UPDATED THE
ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING. ALSO
UPDATED THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY TO REFLECT THE TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY
FROM THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE QPF AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS WERE ALSO
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW POP FORECAST. THE OTHER ELEMENTS OF
THE FORECAST WERE IN GOOD ENOUGH SHAPE TO WARRANT NOT CHANGING
ANYTHING ELSE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BLOSSOMING NOW IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. FORECAST GENERALLY HAD THIS COVERED
WELL...BUT DID TWEAK TIMING AND INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/LIGHTNING TRENDS. LATEST NEAR
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A SEPARATE ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE TWO WAVES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE EXPECTATION FOR NUMEROUS MORNING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL AND THEN
ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY CURRENTLY FOUND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE...SO NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...
THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED BY ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A CONCERN DUE
TO SATURATED GROUND.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BETTER
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM. SOME SUNSHINE WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS ON FRIDAY WELL INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN A SPLIT FLOW TO START THE
EXTENDED WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND A CLOSED LOW WHICH IS
IN THE PROCESS OF CREEPING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...ALONG THE NORTHERN JET STREAM...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OPENS AND EJECTS TO THE EAST...THESE TWO
FEATURES BEGIN TO PHASE...DEEPENING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST. CLOSER TO EAST KENTUCKY
DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE MENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS...A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRONG
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. PWATS
WITH THIS LOOK TO BE NEAR 1.40 INCHES IN MOST EAST KENTUCKY
LOCATIONS WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNDAY.

CONCERNING THIS...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE HAD GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND CONSISTENCY AS WELL. IN FACT...MOS DATA HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING CAT POPS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORS AND WHAT THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN...HAVE GONE ABOVE WHAT
THE SUPER BLEND HAS DISPLAYED FOR EAST KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE
DOWNSLOPE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THIS EVENT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE SURGE IN MOISTURE WITH THIS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THIS
ADIABATIC PROCESS. BESIDE THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSSIBLE
FLOOD SCENARIO...THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
ADVERTISING IS CONCERNING. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR HERE IS THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP AND LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL GO WITH CAT POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS TIME FRAME WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MAY NEED TO
HIGHLIGHT A SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH THIS ELEMENT IS STILL VAGUE
DUE TO THE TIMING...LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY...AND TIMING WITH THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARRIVING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

CONTINUED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH. LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND RARE QUIET WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CAUSING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE STORMS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT TO OUR EAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS FOLLOWED BY A BREIF
LULL. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL FORCING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER
UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL UNSURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS SECOND ROUND WILL BECOME SO JUST KEPT WITH A VCTS
MENTION FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR RIGHT NOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A LOWERING
CLOUD DECK BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 08Z OR SO.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...ABE


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