Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 041816
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
216 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST WAS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE. BLENDED MID DAY OBS INTO THE
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER A BIT FOR TODAY. IT IS A CLEAR START...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY. OTHER CHANGES MADE WERE OF
LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR THIS MORNING UNDER A
HIGH PRESSURE REGIME. BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL
BE THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AS RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS SUBSIDE AND
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CLIMB TO 70 BY NOON. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS AS WELL AS THE ZONE FORECAST...AS WHAT
IS LEFT OUT THERE SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS /THOUGH
STILL LIGHT/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED DAYTIME
CU...WITH OTHERWISE VERY QUIET CONDITIONS. THAT BEING SAID...NO
OTHER MAJOR UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENT
OF THE SHORT TERM. PLAN VIEW MODEL OUTPUT IS FINALLY TRYING TO STEER
AWAY FROM ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS WOULD MAKE SENSE
GIVEN THE STRONG LACK OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL POINTING AT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
SOME ISL/SCT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME SLIGHT MIXING DOWN OF WINDS /STILL
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS/. DID NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...THE LATEST NAM12 RUN HAS ACTUALLY MOISTENED UP A
BIT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THINK THIS MAY STILL BE A BIT
OVERDONE...AND NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY PRECIP
THREAT. OTHERWISE... LIGHT SRLY FLOW AND GOOD SUN COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. EXPECT GENERALLY LOW 80S BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR HIGHS...WHILE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS IN
TEMPERATURE. THIS COULD MEAN SOME SIZABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES FOR VALLEYS BETWEEN MORNING LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND
WEAKENING A BIT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE A
FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY REGARDING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL LOW THAT ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING THIS FEATURE INLAND...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN COUNTIES. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP A LID ON
CONVECTION BESIDES PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP THE RAIN
MENTION OUT UNTIL SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE
LOWS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER SHELTERED VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
THEN LOW TO MID 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING IFR. HOWEVER...NO TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFFECTED.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND AT MID DAY TUESDAY...AND NEAR CALM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL


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