Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 170551
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
151 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE AREA. PRECIP HAS NOT REDEVELOPED INTO THE AREA YET BUT
EVIDENCE OF A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS POPPING JUST NORTH OF THE OH
RIVER WILL JUST BE ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY TO LEAVE
POPS IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH DAWN. A NEW ZFP WILL NOT
BE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

PRECIP HAS DIED OUT OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME BEING.
THERE WERE SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM WESTERN KY TO SOUTHWESTERN OH.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTHEAST
AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER EASTERN KY
A LITTLE BEFORE DAWN. HAVE USED 20-30 PERCENT POP TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A SMALL RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
AFTER SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. IF IT OCCURS...THINK THE
ACTIVITY WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT THAT THE CONVECTIVE CURRENTS WOULD BE RISING INTO.
WITHOUT A STRONG FOCUS/FORCING MECHANISM...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
COULD BE THE DEMISE OF WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE MORE PLENTIFUL
ACTIVITY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
THE TIME FRAME FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL BEING A BIT OFF WITH ITS
HANDLING OF TODAYS CONVECTION...THE NAM12 WAS MODEL OF CHOICE FOR
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ARE
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE THE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY...IF THAT...WILL BE LEFT OVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY ALSO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT...IT
APPEARS THAT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPARSE. BASED
ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THERE SHOULD BE LULL IN THE ACTION FROM
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAXING OUT IN THE 70S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON A CUT OFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO
PUSH SLOWLY EWD EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE ITS ENERGY GETS INGESTED AND
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER UNTIL THE CLOSED LOW ENERGY PHASES WITH IT
AND MOVES EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SFC LOW
IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE PLAINS AND AHEAD
OF IT...A STRONG SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. PW VALUES UP TO 1.4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS NEW
SURGE OF MOISTURE....WHICH ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH OUT OF
KY BY MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A LOW THAT IS NOW CUT OFF IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL UNDULATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND IT. HOWEVER...THIS
SHOULDN/T CAUSE ANY ISSUES FOR KENTUCKY AS THE ENERGY APPEARS TO
STAY FURTHER NORTH UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE LOW STARTS SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD.

AT THE SFC...SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEGIN INCREASING. THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL WILL FALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHERE AT LEAST AN INCH
OF LIQUID IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF SFC/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THINGS WILL DRY OUT AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL GET A REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL IF NOT RIGHT AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON
THURSDAY AS THE LOW SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WELL AS A
FEW SHOWERS. THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER HERE AND
THERE. TOWARD DAWN...SOME IFR CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD WILL SHUNT THIS LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST TOWARDS
MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OR CIRRUS EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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