Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 021754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
154 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITHOUT ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1121 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST AND UPDATED SKY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY
COVER...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. PATCHY
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALSO...A SHORT WAVE
THROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...
SPREADING MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. THESE SHOULD THIN
OUT THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS...TO AROUND 50 ON THE RIDGETOPS.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED UNDER THE VEIL OF THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
TRYING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHES
OF HIGHER BASED STRATOCU.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RECOVERING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPIRALING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...WILL DAMPEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRAVELS EAST
ALONG THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH  THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR GRADUALLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 70S. THE COOLER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SHOULD BE A BIT WIDER STILL...AS RIDGETOPS STAY
CLOSER TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ENGAGES ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW
SPOTS TOPPING THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN OVERALL QUIET
STRETCH OF TIME IS IN STORE. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO
GENERATE A BIT OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES IN A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP. LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK AND MID-UPPER
LEVELS REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S BY MID AND LATE WEEK...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS SUB-20 PERCENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BREAKING DOWN AND ENOUGH MOISTURE RECOVERY MAY OCCUR THROUGH AIR
MASS MODIFICATION SO THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

FOG WILL BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN VALLEYS NEAR LARGE
STREAMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED VLIFR TOWARD DAWN. THE
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL



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