Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 310735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY TO
OUR NORTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED...AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE
TO OUR SOUTH AND/OR EAST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND EVENTUALLY
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL ALLOW FOR A WELL MIXED SURFACE LAYER
AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN WINDS AS HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.
WILL LOOK FOR A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BY DAWN
ON WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING...AND A CESSATION OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL LEAD TO A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TO START OUT THE PERIOD... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM...MOIST AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE 70 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS SOME DECENT WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING
CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN A SERIES
OF SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSE KY. DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ONLY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW HOURS...WITH A FAST
TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR DIRECTLY BEHIND AS
YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE REGION.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS LESSON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S
AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE N. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM/JMW
AVIATION...HAL


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