Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 010817
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
417 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IS DESCENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR ON LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM
THROUGH THE CWA...GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45 DEGREES WITH THE
DEWPOINTS SIMILAR. THANKS TO THE EARLIER SHOWERS...AND SOME
ONGOING LIGHT ONES...PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OVER
THE AREA. ON SATELLITE...CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHILE LOWER CLOUDS EXIST IN THE EAST...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE OPENING CLOSED LOW
DEPARTING THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE...BUT ALSO
TRAILING A BAND OF ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY IN WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE HEIGHT RISES PAUSE. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT OVER THE AREA WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND
HRRR FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...
DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. COOL
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. WITH MARGINAL CAPE AND LIS POTENTIALLY TO -2 THIS
AFTERNOON A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT RULE BE RULED OUT...BUT WILL
LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST IN LIEU OF THE MORE LIKELY LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AMIDST
PARTIAL CLEARING AT BEST. A WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY...
AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...HOWEVER...A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE ENERGY PASSING BY ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SPRINKLES IN THE WX GRIDS FOR THIS WITH RELATIVELY LOW POPS.

FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AGAIN HAVE STARTED WITH THE
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST AND
THEN THE SUPERBLEND AFTER THAT. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON TERRAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO MUCH
GIVEN THE HIGH/S POSITION TO THE WEST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
GENERALLY ABOVE MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAV NUMBERS MOST
SIMILAR TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

BY 0Z SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING EASTERN KY AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL ENSUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AND SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF CANADA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW FROM MOVING EASTWARD...THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BECOME ELONGATED IN A NEARLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF
KY...AND REMAIN STATIONARY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MEAN INCREASING TEMPERATURE TRENDS INTO MIDWEEK AS WELL. THAT BEING
SAID...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND A BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...COULD BE A GOOD SET UP FOR
SOME SCATTERED POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON TUESDAY...AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
WELL. THE GFS SEEMS TO LATCH ONTO THIS IDEA MORE THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT EXPECT MODELS TO BEGIN LINING UP BETTER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS...BOTH AGREE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE SE
PORTION OF THE CWA.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST...AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY YET AGAIN
FOR SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE WARM AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK BOTH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
WESTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG PULL
IN MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...PULLING DIRECTLY NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...EXPECT OUR NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LIKELY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THOUGH A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL DRIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE EARLIER RAINS ARE LEADING TO PATCHY FOG THAT
CAN BE BRIEFLY DENSE AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH PATCHES
OF LOW STRATUS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO TO HANDLE
THE INTERMITTENT TIME OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES
THROUGH DAWN. THE TAFS IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO 5K FT AND VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARED...VFR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF


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