Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 240730
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

WINDS HAVE STAYED UP A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS EVENING...SO
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST. THUS...WILL
SLOW DOWN THE TEMPERATURE FALL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...FINAL
VALUES SHOULD STILL BE OBTAINABLE AFTER THE WINDS DIE OFF THIS
EVENING. THUS...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR A CLEAR AND WINDY DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR A VERY QUICK
DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES. THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING ON THE RIDGES AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS. SO HAVE
WENT WITH A FREEZE WARNING AREA WIDE TONIGHT. FROST IS LIKELY IS
MANY LOCATIONS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS AND WILL HELP USHER IN WARM MOIST AIR...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL


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