Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 030611 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
211 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE ONE EXCEPTION
HERE IS A DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS SKIRTING OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IN ADDITION TO HOW DRY IT GOT TODAY...WILL LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE LESSENED IT FROM AREAS TO PATCHY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS FOR CURRENT OBS. WITH THESE
CHANGES...HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP AND SENT OUT THE FRESHENED
GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN KY AND TN. UNDER THIS DOME...SOME
AFTERNOON CU DID DEVELOP BUT HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.
AS WELL...SOME MIXING UP TO 8 KFT TODAY DID A NUMBER ON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND RECOVERY TONIGHT MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH FOR MORE THAN USUAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. THAT APPEARS TO
BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME DEEP RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. UPDATED
TEMPS AND DEW POINT ALONG WITH THE MOST CURRENT CONDITIONS. THESE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW ZFP
NOT NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER KY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LEAVES A
NONDESCRIPT PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT ALLOW
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF...AND THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BRING SIZABLE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RESIDING OVER THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL ACROSS THE AREA WITHOUT
THE REAL HIGH HUMIDITY.  HIGHS IN THE 80S APPEAR LIKELY EACH DAY.
WHILE JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SHOULD STAY DRY THIS WEEK...THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD POP EACH
AFTERNOON...STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN SLIGHTLY
AND WE GET SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND HARDLY WORTH THE
MENTION AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANYTHING TO POP WOULD BE ON
THE HIGH TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH WILL
BREAK DOWN BETTER NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS JUST BEYOND
THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. WE SHOULD SEE VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING
AS YOU WOULD EXPECT UNDER THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...BESIDES SOME PATCHY IFR OR WORSE FOG EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE AREA...STEERING CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES.
FEW TO SCATTERED HIGHER BASED STRATOCU WILL BE SEEN ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 6 TO 8K FEET AGL RANGE. WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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