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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251215 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 715 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009 .SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER CHI WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THIS CROSSING CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AS IT DOES SO...IT IS KICKING UP AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OVER EAST KENTUCKY. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS ARE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH AS THIS BOUNDARY APPROACHES...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS FOUND BEHIND IT. EARLIER CLEAR PATCHES IN THE EAST HAVE FILLED BACK IN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND THIS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS...WILL HELP TO MIX OUT THE COOLER EASTERN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S WITH DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE MINOR DIFFERENCES ALOFT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE DOUBLE BARRELED TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...SIMILARLY IN ALL MODELS. IT IS THE SECONDARY...AND SOON TO BECOME MAIN...TROUGH THAT WILL DRIVE THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS LATTER TROUGH...DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WILL WRAP UP QUICKLY INTO A POTENT CLOSED LOW BY EVENING. AS THIS LOW THEN BARRELS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...IT WILL BECOME THE ANCHOR OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. THE ENERGY STREAM FROM THIS LARGE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH KENTUCKY THURSDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING THIS...THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY. THE NEW ECMWF SOLUTION FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL SPREAD AND SEEMS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE BALANCING THE QUICKER AND FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE TROUGH FROM THE GFS ON THURSDAY AND THEN THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST PLACEMENT OF THE NAM/S LOW CENTER AT 12Z FRIDAY. ACCORDINGLY...FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAKING CLIMATOLOGICALLY BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS POORER RESOLUTION...SPECIFICALLY WHEN IT COMES TO UPSLOPE DETAILS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING TAKING ITS PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH IT. THE SFC LOW THAT SPAWNED THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN DEEPEN TONIGHT...BECOMING THE MAIN LOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME CLOSER TO HOME... THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CRASH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SPAWNING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...A MODERATE NOR`EASTER WILL BE UNDERWAY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE CYCLONE WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO KENTUCKY COOLING THE COLUMN AND LIKELY ALLOWING SNOW TO MIX WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH...AND AS A RESULT THE PCPN WILL PULL OUT OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT HAPPEN BEFORE THE HIGHEST EASTERN RIDGES NEAR VIRGINIA MANAGE TO PICK UP A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH THE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES COULD BECOME SLICK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL ADDRESS THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. UNDERCUT MOS FOR HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN THE FACE OF MILD CAA. LATER ON...PREFERRED THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN UNDERCUT THESE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR EAST ON FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WENT HIGHER ON FRIDAY IN THE EAST. .LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A QUICK RETURN TO A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND OVER OUR AREA AS ENERGY DIVES DOWN INTO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND EVEN SOME DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD END ANY PRECIP BEFORE NIGHTFALL AND THEN RESULT IN A QUICK SCOURING OUT OF ANY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A BIT OF A WARM UP IS THEN ANTICIPATED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING... ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SUPPRESSED MIXED LAYER BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THUS WE KEPT MUCH BELOW THE 25/00Z GFSX GUIDANCE NUMBERS EACH DAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES QUITE A BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THERE REMAIN BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW IT DOES SO. WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND WOUND UP SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE 25/00Z GFS IS NICE TO LOOK AT AND ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE MORE CONSISTENT AND LESS AMPLIFIED 25/00Z ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT HAS MUCH MORE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. THUS EXPECT A PROLONGED THREAT FOR RAIN... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ARRIVING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN THE 25/00Z GFSX GUIDANCE NUMBERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED MVFR AND LOW END VFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT COVER MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY...BUT IS ERODING FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP TOWARD MID MORNING...FOLLOWING FROPA...LEAVING BEHIND A SCATTERED BATCH OF CLOUDS AROUND 2.5K FEET...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO FORM A CIG UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY FRONT WILL APPROACH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RUN AT NEAR 10 KTS TODAY WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS BEFORE SETTLING DOWN SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM....ABE AVIATION...GREIF
