Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 060749
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
349 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MODIFICATION THAT WILL AFFECT
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FOR TODAY...EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY...WHERE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE HIGH SUN ANGLES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID AND EVEN POSSIBLY
SOME UPPER 80S. BEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PINNED OVER THE FAR SE
PORTION OF THE STATE...SO A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON HERE ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WENT AHEAD AND
CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF ISL THUNDER IN FORECAST. OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MUCH IN THE SAME AS WELL...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING
SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER...A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OFF THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN FEEDING MOISTURE INLAND. WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER KY...E TO SE WINDS WILL BRING
ENOUGH MOISTURE OFF OF THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR A DEFINITE UPTICK IN
HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A BETTER SHOT
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY
MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AS PRECIP. JUST LOOKING AT THE LATEST NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS...HI RES PLAN VIEW MODELS...AND THE DOWNSLOPING
FLOW...STILL EXPECT MOST PRECIP WILL STAY OVER FAR SE KY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...SOME MODELS /THE GFS FOR INSTANCE/...ARE SPREADING WHAT
SEEMS TO BE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. AS SUCH...TRIED TO MATCH UP WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES BY FOCUSING MAIN AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR
SE CWA IN THE FORECAST...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS MAKING IT
WESTWARD DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF MID AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SUN
BEGINS TO FADE...EXPECT ANY TRIGGERING FEATURES WILL QUICKLY FADE
AND ANY ONGOING RAIN/TSRA OR EVEN BKN CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK APART.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LARGELY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA BUT SLOWLY GIVING WAY AND SLIDING EAST AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS TRIES TO MOVE EAST AND
UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MON AND TUES. ALSO COMPLICATING THIS
MATTER...IS A TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND AS
WELL...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND MAKING IT
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY BY
SATURDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE SUCH THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT
BE ABLE TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIMEFRAME...THE EURO AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL MAINTAINING AND MORE DIURNAL TREND
TO EACH DAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THE EURO AND GFS DO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT GOING
AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED AND THIS ALSO MADE MAKING A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SUPER BLEND MORE SUITABLE. MAINLY...ANY CHANGES TO THE
SUPER BLEND WERE FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME...AND WAS TO MAKE POPS A MORE DIURNAL TREND. BASED UPON
TRENDS...EVEN ON SATURDAY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SNEAK INTO THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS IN EAST KENTUCKY
BEFORE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CREEPS CLOSER TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN HIGH CHANCE TO EVEN LIKELY POPS IN THE AREA BY
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. OVERALL...FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY CAN BE DAYS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS MAY STAY DRY ALL DAY
BUT MOVING ON FROM THERE...A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN SOME RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE TAF SITES SHOULD NOT
BE AFFECTED. CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE 5 TO 7K FT RANGE IS POSSIBLE
ONCE MORE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE STATE. EXPECT TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ONCE MORE BY TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW


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