Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 041945
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY DRY AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL WORK WEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 80S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO
PLAY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE FEATURE INLAND...WHICH WOULD HELP
WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN OUR AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE WHICH
WOULD HELP KEEP A CAP ON ANY SHOWERS THAT TRY TO FORM UNDER THE
RIDGE. SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS ON THURSDAY WHERE THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS AN UL TROUGH PUSHES EWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING IFR. HOWEVER...NO TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFFECTED.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND AT MID DAY TUESDAY...AND NEAR CALM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL


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