Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 280535
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO FAR TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM INGESTING THE
LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST ITSELF.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO MID 40S WITHIN BROADER AND MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT...WHILE READINGS
ARE STILL IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY MORE COOLER SPOTS
BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER. THE OVERALL SATELLITE AS WELL AS SHORT
TERM MODEL TRENDS IS FOR A CONTINUED GRADUAL THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE ONLY NUDGED UP THE LOWS JUST A
TOUCH GIVEN THE SLOWER DROP OFF SO FAR THIS EVENING. A FEW SPOTS
MAY STILL GET DOWN TO AROUND 33 DEGREES...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
PATCHY FROST WORDING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON AS ADVERTISED EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO CAPTURE THE
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH DID TRY TO SLOW THE DIURNAL DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AS THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY HINDERING
THE RATE OF COOLING. ALSO ADDED A TOUCH OF FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS CLOSER TO DAWN BASED ON WHAT HAD OCCURRED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION
AROUND A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN US
COAST. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE A CLOSED LOW IS ROTATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE BY TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING AS IT DEPARTS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC
HIGH SETTLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FROM TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ROTATE INTO THE MID SOUTH. CORRESPONDING
SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION
AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO CLOSE OFF AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DISTURBANCE ROTATING INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY PROLONG THE CU
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...PENDING HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS THAT ARE NOW OVER
EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY DROP SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY
IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOWER
30S. ASSUMING ENOUGH CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO
NEAR LEVELS OF LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN A FEW
VALLEYS THAT HAD HIGHER DEW POINTS 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS STIRRED FOR A WHILE AFTER
DARK...WE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF PATCHY
FROST...WITH THIS BEING MAINLY FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS OR
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.

RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING FURTHER INTO THE 60S IN MOST PLACES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH. SHOWERS COULD CREEP INTO
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD TOWARD DAWN
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA
AND ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH A SPLIT FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS
SPLIT FLOW REGIME...A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN TX WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW
APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY...A SECOND LOW WILL DIVE DOWN FROM CANADA
AND PHASE/MERGE WITH THE CLOSED LOW BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A STRONG LOW TRACKING FROM KY SLOWLY EWD OFF THE COAST DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH
HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO KY FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN START MID WEEK AS THE LOW
SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION EWD TOWARD THE COAST.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...EASTERN KY REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE PRECIP...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY....WITH OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST...WE WILL
SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON SUNDAY BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 7 OR
8Z. BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...SJS AND SYM WILL BE THE ONLY TAF
SITES AFFECTED BY THE EXISTING CLOUDS. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE TAF
SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...AR


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