Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS04 KWBC 261806
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 27/0000 UTC THRU APR 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SRN ROCKIES INTO HE SRN PLAINS/CNTL GULF COAST...

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO
PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF SRN CO ROCKIES
INTO MUCH OF CNTL/WRN OK...CNTL/NE TX...AND PARTS OF SRN LA IN
RESPONSE TO DVLPG CLOSED LOW MOVING EWD FROM AZ/NM REGION INTO THE
SRN PLAINS.  THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE REGION SUN NIGHT AS STGR JET WINDS REDEVELOP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPR LOW.  STG EXIT REGION/DIFFLUENT UPR JET WILL HELP
TO INCREASE BROAD SCALE ASCENT TO THE NORTH/EAST SIDE OF DVLP
85H/7H CIRC CENTER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PD.
 THIS STG ASCENT COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OF HIER MSTR WITH PLUME OF 1 TO 1.5 INCH PWS BEING
DRAWN INTO AND N OF E/W FRONT ALONG WITH STG CAPE ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTH WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING CONVECTIVE RAINS OVERNIGHT INTO MON.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE REGION INTO SW
OK WOULD BE IN THE FAVORED AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND NORTH OF THE LOW AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HIER PW
AXIS..ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND GENL DURATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. AREAL AVG AMOUNTS HERE ARE EXPECT TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE ACRS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SW/SRN OK WITH ISOLD HEAVIER
AMOUNTS PSBL.  IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT..ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE MORE SUPER-CELL TYPE CONVECTION AHEAD OF
ASSOCD DRY LINE THROUGH CNTL TX BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT TO THE EAST INTO PSBL MCS IN DIFFLUENT
REGION BETWEEN POLAR AND STGR SUBTROPICAL JET ACRS SRN TX.  WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE ACRS ERN TX INTO
WRN LA ...THE STG DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG NARROW PLUME OF 1.5 INCH
PLUS PWS COULD LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PSBL
ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES THRU EARLY MON.  WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
PATRN HELPING TO HOLD HEIGHTS DOWN ACRS THE ERN U.S. AND DRIER AIR
EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES...EXPECT THE STGR STORMS ON MONDAY TO
GENLY SHIFT TOWARD THE CNTL GULF COAST REGION TOWARD DEEP LAYERED
E/W AXIS OF SUBTROP MSTR ALONG THE NRN GULF OF MEX.  ANY LINGERING
MCS MON MRNG MAY CONTINUE TO FEED OFF OF MODEST SW 85H FLOW INFLOW
AND POOLING OF NEAR 2 INCH PWS ACRS SW LA AND THE UPR TX COAST AND
DVLP EWD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE AFTN...SUPPORTING THE
POTNL FOR ORGANIZED HEAVIER RAINS ACRS SRN LA.  FELT A
COMBINATION OF THE WRF ARW AND CANADIAN GEM SEEMED TO HAVE BEST
FIT FOR EVOLUTION OF WARM SECTOR DVLPMENT ACRS CNTL/ERN TX AND
EVEN SOME DEGREE QPF PLACEMENT FARTHER NORTH WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS. SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER OVER THE
ROCKIES.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...

LIGHTER PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING INFLOW AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW PATRN AHEAD OF SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT.  MODEL SPREAD
HERE WAS GENLY SMALL AND GENLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF LATEST MODEL
RUNS ALONG WITH CONTINUITY.

...NE...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK EMBDD VORTS CIRCULATING AROUND
SLOW MOVING E/W ELONGATED UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
LEAD TO SOME UNSETTLED CONDS WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY FAVORED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTH INTO PARTS OF THE NRN MID
ATLC REGION.  MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED HERE WITH AREA AVG AMOUNTS
GENLY .10 INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS.

...NW...

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PATRN AHEAD OF GENL BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO WRN
WA..ESPECIALLY THE OLYMPICS WITH SOME .25 INCH AMOUNTS PSBL.
GENLY FOLLOWED CONTINUITY GIVEN GOOD RUN TO RUN MODEL AGREEMENT.


SULLIVAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 488613 492617 494619 495623 497631 498640 498648 499658
      501670 501679 497692 493703 485715 481719 474721 470726
      470729 468731 466735 461739 459744 454749 451755 446759
      441762 437766 435773 434779 432797 424806 421811 419816
      416821 413820 409815 408808 411800 412798 409796 404795
      401800 395809 391813 384814 380814 380811 379802 384797
      387793 389787 388781 387773 389767 400760 403749 405743
      403735 408707 411703 415700 427697 432693 437688 440681
      441674 441667 443660 445648 449643 453639 457640 460642
      463641 467637 469632 475618
 0.01 518270 520262 519256 518249 515244 512240 510235 508228
      504226 498218 495217 492217 489216 478212 472211 468212
      463213 460216 459218 458223 461228 459231 457232 456236
      458238 459242 453245 451248 449255 450257 454260 456260
      460260 464258 470257 476259 481261 484264 487266 488269
      490276 495283 500287 503288 508287 510282 513276 517273
      518270
 0.01 532936 528930 525928 522928 515933 510936 500943 490952
      468980 459993 448007 435014 428018 426023 422030 417032
      412029 409030 405028 395018 388013 386010 385005 385998
      384993 382985 374963 369958 364951 357938 348930 344925
      342926 340923 336916 333913 330909 326900 322891 317875
      313867 310856 307849 304840 299825 294811 283803 271795
      268792 264791 256794 252796 251798 252802 253806 256809
      268818 270819 271822 272827 273830 274836 274844 272853
      270866 269871 268874 268885 268907 268910 267916 263924
      261932 261938 264941 259956 256964 253972 265977 270980
      275978 281976 283980 283985 284993 285997 284001 283011
      285016 288016 294017 298015 305013 309010 313008 317018
      343111 349117 354117 353114 353111 359107 364108 367110
      372115 377119 379119 379116 367106 362103 360097 362092
      367091 374096 378097 381095 396096 398095 400097 403099
      405102 406107 408110 410110 415106 420102 421097 419094
      416093 414090 416085 419086 431094 432090 431087 433082
      439076 443076 446078 449080 453081 456079 458075 464070
      476061 480057 483050 491040 498024 504006 513991 518984
      522973 523970 519967 517966 519963 521960 532936
 0.01 487233 488231 488228 487226 486224 484223 483222 481222
      479223 477223 476225 475227 476230 478229 480229 481231
      481232 483233 484234 486234 487233
 0.01 461106 462101 460101 457098 455097 453095 450092 448094
      448097 450100 453102 454105 454110 454113 455113 456108
      459106 461106
 0.01 440830 440825 438823 437820 434818 432816 430816 428819
      427819 425824 427827 429829 433831 434831 438830 440830
 0.01 382702 381692 379682 373681 366683 360686 356691 350696
      346703 342715 338731 336738 335745 334755 330761 327766
      326772 324776 325782 326792 327801 329804 329808 336821
      341825 344825 346823 348820 348816 350813 349807 347799
      346791 344780 343770 344767 343762 345755 346752 348748
      354744 359740 365737 368734 370730 373724 382702
 0.01 360827 360825 358828 356828 355830 353833 353835 353837
      355837 357835 357834 358832 358830 360828 360827
 0.25 514264 515261 515259 515258 514256 514253 512250 511249
      509248 508247 506246 506247 506249 507250 506253 507255
      507256 508258 508259 509260 510262 511263 512264 514265
      514264
 0.25 507279 507271 505265 503259 498254 494250 491248 488249
      490257 492263 495269 497273 501279 504281 507279
 0.25 486650 485645 481643 476645 473648 470651 467655 468661
      471665 473668 478668 481664 483659 484655 486650
 0.25 481247 482244 481244 481241 480240 479238 477237 475237
      473239 474242 474243 476245 477248 478248 479249 481248
      481247
 0.25 480693 480691 479688 478689 477690 476691 475692 476694
      476696 478696 480695 480693
 0.25 492005 493000 491998 487000 480008 473016 470023 466028
      460037 453046 451052 454054 458053 463052 468048 475040
      482031 488018 490013 492005
 0.25 440055 437050 435050 430051 427052 423054 422056 422060
      424065 426068 429067 432064 435060 438057 440055
 0.25 416057 414052 411050 405048 393041 387036 384032 382027
      379010 377991 373976 370967 364960 359954 354950 342943
      337940 332936 329928 326919 315909 313898 311891 307878
      304869 303858 301849 299842 297838 291826 288820 283816
      281818 280823 281835 281847 281856 281874 279891 277902
      277912 277918 278922 282927 283935 282943 283952 285958
      294972 295976 296980 298984 301986 299993 299996 302997
      306997 309996 315994 339013 343018 347024 346032 344041
      343045 342048 343051 349057 356059 366059 372065 374067
      375070 375080 377080 380079 381074 384071 392068 404060
      411060 416057
 0.25 269800 269798 268797 266796 264796 262796 260797 259798
      258799 259800 260801 261802 263802 265802 266801 268801
      269800
 0.50 503273 503270 502267 501267 500265 499265 497265 498268
      499270 501272 502274 503273
 0.50 471038 470038 469038 467040 466040 467043 469041 470039
      471038
 0.50 398055 397052 393053 391049 388044 384040 380035 378032
      377027 376006 374991 371978 367970 362963 357958 354956
      347953 340954 337953 335946 321921 317922 313920 312915
      312909 310902 306887 302869 300861 299854 294843 292840
      289841 288850 286866 285882 283897 282908 283913 286916
      290919 292922 292927 289940 288946 290952 296950 301947
      304945 308945 307949 304952 300956 298959 299963 301968
      305972 312974 312978 310980 306986 305990 310991 318990
      325991 329995 332000 337005 342011 347015 350021 352029
      351035 349043 350047 355053 358054 363055 371055 378058
      383059 387058 394055 398055
 1.00 383049 381045 378042 373040 369037 367034 368030 371024
      372018 372008 370994 368983 364973 359967 354963 350962
      344962 342965 337974 336980 337986 337992 339997 344006
      350013 355020 359030 363038 363047 363050 365050 375052
      382051 383049
 1.00 332975 330969 327963 328951 325945 321930 317929 312931
      310926 304893 301885 298880 296869 295862 294857 292859
      292866 291876 292885 295888 296892 296901 297911 297922
      293936 291946 292947 296946 305939 310934 314939 318944
      317951 314961 317967 320970 319973 316979 314982 317985
      321985 326984 330980 332975
 1.50 380049 379047 378045 376045 374044 372044 371046 370046
      371046 371048 372049 374049 376050 378050 379049 380049
 1.50 368021 369013 369003 369997 366990 365984 362977 360972
      355969 349967 345967 341973 339980 339988 340996 343001
      347006 355013 361023 363026 365026 368021
 1.50 328977 328975 327973 326972 325972 324973 323974 322975
      321976 320977 319979 319982 321982 323981 324980 325980
      326979 328977
 1.50 307928 307922 304918 303914 301914 300920 299924 298931
      296935 295939 297942 300939 303936 305933 307928
 1.50 301910 301907 300907 300910 301911 301910
 2.00 367019 367013 367006 366996 363985 359976 357973 352971
      349971 345973 341982 341988 342995 347001 353008 358014
      363021 366021 367019
 2.00 303928 304926 303925 302926 302928 303930 303928
 3.00 355994 355991 354989 353987 352985 351983 351982 350981
      349980 348979 346979 345980 344981 344982 344984 344987
      344988 344989 345991 346993 347993 348994 349995 351995
      353995 355994
 4.00 350989 350987 350986 349985 348983 346984 347987 348988
      348989 350990 350989

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.