Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 25/1200 UTC THRU APR 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT A BIT UPON LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS BY 12Z SUN AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON
THE BACKSIDE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.
WITH THE TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS FLATTENING OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...FORCING WILL BECOME MORE FRONTOGENETIC (STRAIGHT
UPPER JET FORCING) AS THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL
INFLOW...ANOMALOUS PW AND 805-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX AND DEEP LAYER
INSTBY WILL PERSIST ALONG THE FLATTENING SUBTROPICAL JET SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT. MOREOVER...AS THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW VEERS
WESTERLY AND BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE 850-300 MB MEAN
FLOW...W-E CELL TRAINING WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN ACROSS
NORTHERN MS/AL/GA INTO SOUTHERN SC. AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES OVER THESE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS...HOWEVER PER THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
3-5+ INCHES WITHIN A 3-6 HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.


...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL EXIST OVER MUCH
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD...THOUGH PW AND MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES WILL
NOT BE AS ROBUST OVER THESE AREAS COMPARED TO FARTHER SOUTH.
NEITHER WILL THE INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG
THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS). AT THE SAME
TIME...A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 1-1.5 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS PER THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE OVER AREAS WHERE CURRENT FFG IS RELATIVELY LOW (AND WILL
LIKELY LOWER WITH TIME) WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEPER TERRAIN.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

MOST OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN
BRINGING CLOSED LOW ACRS VANCOUVER ISLAND SEWD ACRS WAS WHILE STG
JET ENERGY TO ITS WEST HELPS DRIVE HEIGHT FALLS SWD THROUGH THE
SRN GT BASIN BY LATE SAT LEADING TO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR
TROF ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  GIVEN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WITH NON-CANADIAN SOLNS...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH REGARD TO QPF THE 00Z EC LOOKED PARTICULARLY
LIGHT ACRS THE NRN/CNTL SIERRA IN VIEW OF DECENT 1 INCH PW PLUME
DROPPING SEWD ALONG THE NRN CA COAST AHEAD OF MODERATELY STG VORT
MAX SO WENT CLOSER TO NON-EC CONSENSUS THERE.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 560029 561024 560019 556012 552004 549003 545003 541003
      538004 531007 521012 506015 498015 495015 491017 472015
      456013 449010 444007 441007 437009 430013 427013 424012
      418009 411006 408005 405005 392010 388016 386020 385025
      385036 388039 386043 377044 370048 367052 363053 361052
      357056 361060 359064 358068 360070 361073 360075 358078
      346084 341087 332087 329089 327093 323099 321102 319106
      318110 320114 332124 336128 338136 342142 346144 351145
      356146 356150 357156 358158 367169 367174 364176 362177
      361180 348185 344192 344198 346202 348210 351217 354223
      359228 364234 368235 371235 375235 378232 382225 385223
      386221 388217 392217 406224 407228 411229 414228 419229
      425234 420237 417238 419241 425244 429243 433245 440244
      447242 450242 454241 457242 461241 466242 469242 476243
      479243 481246 491255 497254 496250 494246 489241 481237
      475225 477223 481225 484227 487229 492230 496234 501239
      506244 510244 513247 516250 520251 521247 520243 516234
      510228 507226 505221 505217 503214 497208 493204 495201
      497200 508197 514211 519216 528218 532212 535206 535198
      534193 532184 530175 526167 516155 511149 506143 501137
      499134 496132 492130 485128 477125 472120 466114 465107
      462096 469093 474094 476092 479090 483090 487089 491090
      496091 499093 505098 508106 513124 517140 527151 535154
      538153 540151 542137 541127 543119 542113 542107 541103
      541096 540091 542085 544081 546076 549067 555048 558037
      560029
 0.01 486200 482184 477180 475178 473179 467181 462185 453193
      449199 444201 440197 438197 436199 431206 431207 434209
      442211 445212 448211 460209 466209 473207 478205 482201
      486200
 0.01 485689 484680 482674 477672 472672 452669 448671 447674
      448678 452680 454681 454685 452691 450695 446699 445702
      441701 438704 438710 439715 438721 439730 441736 445738
      448737 451738 457749 459753 463758 467762 472763 475761
      474753 471737 467724 465718 469714 475713 480709 483699
      485689
 0.01 436921 437912 436904 432888 431882 430874 426859 424850
      422841 419825 414811 410798 408792 407784 406775 403767
      393741 387728 385718 383709 382702 379696 374685 370681
      365679 360677 353678 346680 342683 333691 327700 320710
      313719 308723 302727 297730 294734 289745 277763 275766
      276768 278774 281780 285787 284791 282792 277795 274800
      267802 260803 256805 254810 258813 269816 279822 284826
      287829 288831 293844 293852 292858 291864 288870 286874
      285880 285888 283895 285902 284908 277917 264934 259948
      257953 256957 259959 264960 267961 266963 258972 256978
      260981 264981 266979 270976 274971 275963 277953 284945
      288940 290943 289947 288953 288961 288968 292966 297963
      300959 303958 303954 305948 305944 307939 307932 316925
      327902 331892 339882 342878 344876 348877 352879 356883
      364890 365892 366897 368904 369912 371919 377932 380936
      383942 385948 387954 394964 401973 413968 424962 426961
      427958 429950 432938 436921
 0.01 356196 357194 357192 356190 354189 353191 352191 351193
      351195 351197 351198 353197 355198 356196
 0.01 345182 344172 343167 340164 331162 326159 320158 309157
      307160 308164 317167 324172 327174 331173 335173 338175
      339179 342184 345182
 0.25 546060 547053 547044 546038 545032 542028 539025 533025
      530026 521029 517032 514035 508041 500046 483049 473046
      470044 472039 471036 468032 460026 452023 440022 430022
      419020 410017 401015 397019 398026 404033 406058 407061
      404065 400067 396067 394065 391065 388066 385069 380071
      376072 372075 371081 371088 374098 376103 379105 372154
      374158 379158 385151 391144 392139 397137 405132 413127
      419121 426116 428113 429106 423099 418097 419094 423096
      427100 437102 447100 451100 452096 451095 448091 444088
      439086 434087 426081 421080 418083 417089 414090 417081
      417075 414070 416064 412061 421055 427051 436048 442048
      447050 458051 463049 467047 467054 471058 476064 484069
      490075 496082 503088 507090 511092 521093 525092 529090
      536084 540075 544068 546060
 0.25 502176 501173 499170 497169 495166 495163 493159 492158
      491160 491163 493168 494170 496172 499174 500176 502176
 0.25 495146 495143 494140 492137 491136 489135 488134 488133
      487134 486136 487139 489141 489142 490144 491145 493147
      495146 495146
 0.25 466149 463147 465142 466138 466133 463129 459129 451129
      445132 443136 443142 443148 445152 449156 454164 456164
      458162 462153 466149
 0.25 419178 419175 418174 416174 414174 413174 412176 414178
      415178 417179 419178
 0.25 421884 421873 419860 416850 413839 409830 406825 405820
      402809 401804 400797 398785 395774 387757 374713 370703
      365697 358693 353693 347695 343698 340701 334709 325723
      320728 314734 307739 302746 297753 296758 296765 297770
      299775 303783 308790 310793 312800 311809 308819 309833
      309846 304865 301884 296902 292910 288916 275929 270936
      266943 266948 270948 276943 289930 301920 306913 311906
      313902 316899 319898 323895 333879 337873 344866 357857
      360856 363859 367868 382904 385914 389922 392925 395928
      402933 407934 412933 418926 419922 420915 419903 419896
      420892 421884
 0.25 394207 392202 388197 383195 378191 373187 366185 362187
      366191 367198 371203 376206 383208 389208 394207
 0.25 396180 397177 397175 397173 397172 395171 393171 392172
      391172 390174 389176 390178 391179 392179 394180 396180
      396180
 0.25 364218 363216 361215 360214 358214 359217 361218 363219
      364218
 0.25 368110 365105 359102 357105 358110 361116 357118 351113
      347109 343103 340098 335099 331104 330107 331110 336113
      341117 345121 349128 351134 352137 356139 362126 365120
      366116 367111 368110
 0.50 541062 541050 539040 536036 534034 530034 526035 521039
      515046 510051 503054 488057 485058 483060 484063 487066
      498079 504083 511087 518087 526085 531081 537075 540069
      541062
 0.50 462038 459034 455031 451029 447028 442028 438029 435033
      438038 440040 445043 450043 455042 458040 462038
 0.50 439095 439091 437090 435091 431090 430088 428086 425086
      424089 425091 428094 429095 432097 434097 436096 439095
 0.50 424027 421024 416022 411022 407021 402020 402024 405028
      408031 409035 409039 412040 415037 418034 421031 424027
 0.50 409124 411117 410112 410106 408101 405105 402108 397107
      393109 386113 380119 376128 378132 383131 390128 393126
      398126 403126 407126 409124
 0.50 411863 410856 406849 402845 399839 399829 397820 392805
      392798 391788 389781 386774 379762 377753 376744 373728
      370719 368712 365707 360702 357700 353700 348703 343707
      339712 332723 325733 315741 310745 306750 304756 303764
      305772 309778 313783 317787 320793 318800 316806 315813
      314831 314847 315854 318855 322855 323858 323862 322870
      322881 326882 328880 335870 342860 347848 350842 358841
      364845 367851 369858 371866 373873 376880 382893 387906
      391912 395917 397918 399915 402910 406903 407894 406875
      409868 411863
 0.50 385205 385201 384199 382197 379194 377193 374192 370192
      372196 373198 375200 378203 381204 384205 385205
 0.50 397080 397078 394076 390076 388077 386079 383081 381083
      383085 385088 387089 389088 393087 395086 397083 397080
 0.50 354120 354119 352118 351117 349115 349114 347113 346112
      344109 345112 344114 345116 346116 347118 348119 349119
      350120 352121 354121 354120
 0.50 358819 357814 356808 354804 352802 349804 346807 345812
      346818 347825 347829 349835 351835 353830 356826 357821
      358819
 0.50 287929 286925 285924 283926 281928 279930 277932 276934
      274937 277938 279937 281935 283933 285931 287929
 1.00 531069 532062 532058 527052 523051 521052 516056 509060
      503062 500064 500070 503076 510080 518081 524079 529074
      531069
 1.00 416027 414026 412026 412027 414027 416027
 1.00 399892 399878 397867 395856 391847 387837 385826 383820
      381827 378824 377819 381817 383818 382812 380807 378807
      375811 368818 366820 365823 366827 367833 368838 374860
      379866 384875 387883 390892 392897 395901 398900 398897
      399892
 1.00 367737 366729 363724 359719 355716 352716 348718 344721
      337729 329739 321747 318752 318757 326758 333755 338752
      344753 351752 356749 361747 366742 367737
 1.00 364825 363824 361825 361827 361830 362832 362829 363827
      363826 364825
 1.00 361834 362832 360831 360832 360834 361834
 1.00 338843 338834 337826 335820 333814 333807 333802 332798
      332794 329790 327790 325792 324799 320810 319817 318825
      318832 318837 319840 323838 324835 327833 329836 330840
      330848 333850 337845 338843
 1.50 524070 524065 522063 519063 517064 514066 511066 509067
      506068 505070 507073 508073 512074 515075 518075 520074
      522073 524070
 1.50 383850 382848 381845 379845 379846 380848 381850 381851
      383850 383850
 1.50 363735 364731 362728 360727 357727 353728 352730 350733
      349736 348738 347741 349742 351742 353741 356739 358738
      360738 362738 363735

$$





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