Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 060701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 AM EDT WED MAY 06 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 06/1200 UTC THRU MAY 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL STATES / GREAT PLAINS...

STILL EXPECT A HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE NOCTURNAL RAINFALL
EVENT LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
NORTH TX...EASTERN OK..AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGH-RIDGE SETUP WILL ONCE AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...COUPLED WITH THE ENHANCED (ANOMALOUS) LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND S-N ADVECTION OF HIGHER PW VALUES (WHICH WILL TAP
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM). 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG
THE AXIS OF A 50KT 850 MB LLJ.

...WESTERN U.S...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HERE. A 500 MB LOW ABOUT 1.5
DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WILL DIG TOWARD CALIFORNIA...WHILE
THE LOW DOWNSTREAM IN THE ROCKIES OPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A ZONE OF RELATIVELY
RICH...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE HAD BEEN ESTABLISHED FROM THE SIERRAS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO WY/CO. SEASONABLY STRONG HEATING...AS
WELL AS INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN...WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO
FALL OFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT DOWNSTREAM WE EXPECT
ANOTHER RELATIVELY ACTIVE DIURNAL CYCLE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE APPALACHIANS. AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
HEAVY...BUT USING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND 00Z NSSL WRF...WE ARRIVED AT AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 0.25 INCHES FROM WESTERN PA TO NORTHERN
MD/VA.


...FLORIDA...

THOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN HELD LARGE SCALE PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF FL DURING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT TROUGH
IN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM...A BRIEF WET PERIOD DID EXIST LATE
TUE...AND MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING FARTHER EAST
TODAY...HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO
NORTHERLY...AND PW VALUES WILL START TO FALL AS THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE PULLS AWAY FROM SHORE. STILL...ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED HEAVY DUMPS OF RAIN NEAR THE
COAST...WHILE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.

BURKE/HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 532211 533203 532196 529183 530176 529170 526167 524163
      522157 518152 510147 504142 500142 500147 503152 505155
      504159 500159 498164 489163 484164 484171 489181 488188
      486195 484199 480201 477202 472202 465210 462214 458216
      453215 449215 446213 442213 437215 433218 429220 425220
      422221 422226 425227 430227 435230 439230 447227 453223
      457224 461227 470222 479222 490224 494226 496231 499236
      503235 502230 502225 505222 504218 502212 500207 501202
      504197 508196 513196 517198 519201 524209 527212 530213
      532211
 0.01 542944 543928 542918 541912 540904 539899 536886 532877
      529869 527865 523862 517858 510856 504856 494858 489863
      486871 486886 486899 487905 486908 484909 478909 476905
      473900 470895 466886 461878 449870 442871 442879 443884
      444889 445892 447896 446899 444896 432889 429888 426890
      420895 417902 415905 410908 403912 396919 390925 387927
      383926 377926 371927 364929 352938 345941 337940 323934
      319932 314932 306934 299947 293966 292970 294974 297982
      283988 271988 267988 263990 244990 238993 233997 237011
      237021 241024 243024 245020 250019 263019 281016 288031
      292032 296034 299036 302036 309032 312030 315031 320036
      323038 327039 331037 334035 338027 342021 347015 352009
      358001 361998 366998 374001 379003 383006 386013 389017
      388023 385030 384036 382039 378043 371047 365052 362054
      361056 366057 369056 376058 377062 373063 368062 366063
      372073 372079 373082 380090 382094 386096 388098 389103
      384111 381112 378117 375125 375130 377129 384128 387127
      389128 391132 390136 385143 377160 374168 372176 373181
      380186 384189 386189 386186 385184 385181 389178 396176
      399174 404175 409176 413175 424165 424154 424148 426145
      428145 432140 435141 436145 437149 436153 441159 444160
      448163 451175 455182 459182 461180 461176 460172 461165
      463161 466158 474140 475132 474127 472122 471115 471109
      470105 465099 461093 459089 462086 469083 475082 485083
      495083 499083 501083 502080 506069 505063 505060 506058
      511053 524042 529037 531029 532016 533009 534005 533000
      534994 537985 540975 540965 542944
 0.01 479241 479239 479236 479235 478234 476234 474234 473236
      474238 474239 475240 477241 478241 479241
 0.01 466237 465234 462232 460234 457233 455233 452234 450234
      448236 449238 453238 455237 458238 461239 463239 466237
 0.01 410211 410206 408205 401203 400201 396200 390197 385193
      382195 380197 380200 385204 390207 395211 399215 404217
      408213 410211
 0.01 422806 422796 421786 418771 414760 412753 411744 410734
      410729 411725 411719 411711 409705 406701 402701 400707
      396720 396726 394733 392738 390743 381750 375760 372765
      370770 370775 370784 366793 364801 362807 357817 351825
      349829 348833 349842 352848 355854 358857 362859 364855
      367849 368843 370837 374831 379821 383819 388820 391824
      392833 392843 389849 383857 380869 382873 386872 397865
      403866 407869 411871 414870 416868 420865 423862 422853
      419847 414835 410824 413812 422806
 0.01 345180 346176 345173 344171 343168 341166 338165 337167
      336172 334173 336175 338177 340179 341182 343182 345180
 0.01 344737 343729 342721 338711 336706 333703 327698 322697
      315698 306703 299708 296710 290712 282718 275724 268730
      262736 248749 243754 243760 246764 249767 248773 240779
      237785 234794 232800 231805 232810 236814 237825 242833
      245837 250837 255836 257832 258827 260824 263821 266821
      271824 277825 283824 286821 293816 302813 311807 318801
      325795 329788 333785 336780 339771 342762 343750 344737
 0.01 315913 315903 314896 307885 298876 288870 283869 277871
      275874 275879 278884 286894 293906 296911 299918 304922
      310922 314918 315913
 0.25 533968 533955 532942 528922 524905 521895 518888 515886
      511885 509887 508892 504911 504920 505931 505941 504951
      501959 499964 496966 492960 485957 470952 467954 466958
      458958 452955 442950 436947 430946 422945 414946 405946
      399950 395950 395947 396942 394938 390936 386937 380938
      373940 366944 356949 341951 329945 317939 312939 309943
      308947 304953 299960 298964 298970 302976 312977 307989
      306004 314012 318018 319020 321020 327014 330006 336002
      342999 348001 351000 353996 359994 365989 369985 370982
      370978 363975 360971 363965 368962 380958 384955 386956
      389959 390965 392974 393978 393984 394990 397996 402000
      410001 417002 422000 423996 426994 433993 438990 443988
      448991 449995 449000 444005 441009 438010 432013 428021
      426025 425031 422037 418043 416045 413045 405040 398035
      394036 392038 390045 391053 393059 391066 390069 387072
      385074 385078 391082 396089 408086 414090 415095 417097
      421102 424108 431110 437108 447103 452098 448093 444087
      440080 441076 444074 444071 440069 429063 427060 428054
      430051 434050 438051 441051 445050 453051 459053 467055
      475055 472059 466061 463064 464068 468068 472066 486065
      493048 502042 511032 516027 521020 524005 528992 531979
      533968
 0.25 451131 450131 449131 447131 448132 450132 451131
 0.25 422140 422133 421130 419130 412134 402138 394142 390146
      389153 387161 385164 382169 383171 386170 390169 394166
      397163 402161 409157 417150 420145 422140
 0.25 391116 390116 389116 390117 391116 421117 419113 415113
410112
      410101 410096 407097 407103 403109 398115 400119 400125
      403127 407126 408120 415120 419119 421117
 0.25 416788 415781 413778 409781 404782 400774 397770 394767
      388768 385772 385781 383787 381791 381795 383796 386793
      389790 393789 400791 405792 407794 410795 413794 414790
      416788
 0.25 338738 337729 336723 333717 331713 326709 321708 316707
      311708 300714 291720 286723 281727 276734 270744 269749
      272754 277765 280778 281786 282792 290798 294802 300802
      304801 310799 315796 319792 325784 330774 334763 336751
      338739 338738
 0.25 346967 345963 343962 339960 337960 335960 332961 330963
      328965 328969 328971 332972 334971 337970 340969 343968
      346967
 0.25 303899 303895 302893 300890 298889 295887 292885 290887
      291890 292893 295895 297896 298897 301899 303899
 0.25 249792 248790 245790 242791 240793 239795 238797 237800
      237802 237804 238806 240808 243807 245806 246803 248800
      248798 249794 249792
 0.25 253004 253002 253001 252000 251999 249999 247999 246999
      244000 244001 244002 245004 247005 249005 251005 253004
      253004
 0.50 527973 528966 527959 526949 523942 521940 518942 515951
      512957 508964 505970 503974 500977 495982 486990 474997
      463002 458008 454013 450019 445023 440027 437029 435033
      434036 434041 435043 439043 444044 447043 452039 457037
      462041 463045 467046 474046 487045 494041 499037 507029
      513024 517017 517010 519002 524986 527973
 0.50 447974 445966 441961 435957 430955 422954 416952 413951
      409952 407956 401970 395984 396988 398991 402996 408998
      413997 422987 433982 439980 445978 447974
 0.50 434097 434095 434092 433090 432087 431087 430085 429085
      428084 427083 425082 423083 422084 423086 423087 423088
      424091 426094 427096 428096 429097 431098 432098 434097
 0.50 418140 418137 416139 414141 414144 416144 417142 418140
      418140
 0.50 410152 410150 410149 408148 406149 405149 403148 401147
      400148 399149 398150 398152 399153 399155 400155 402157
      404157 406156 408155 408154 410153 410152
 0.50 356983 353978 348976 345976 339978 336981 332982 325982
      321981 317984 314988 311992 314994 314998 315002 318004
      324003 328001 337997 346993 350989 353985 356983
 0.50 334736 333728 331723 329718 326715 322713 317711 311712
      306714 300717 296720 289726 283734 279742 279746 283750
      289755 293768 292773 290777 288783 290788 296794 301796
      307795 311793 315790 321782 326774 330762 332752 334743
      334736
 0.50 319947 318945 317945 316944 314945 314946 314947 314948
      315949 316950 317949 319947
 0.50 309960 308958 305957 303958 301962 300964 301968 301971
      303973 305973 304971 305968 307966 308962 309960
 1.00 496010 495005 492006 488008 485010 480011 476012 473016
      472021 474024 478023 481020 485018 490018 492015 495012
      496010
 1.00 428966 428962 424962 418961 414961 411964 410968 408973
      405977 405986 408989 412987 417983 422980 426976 427973
      426968 428966
 1.00 328733 328727 326724 321719 314718 308717 303719 301721
      298726 295734 295739 296743 299752 300762 301768 301773
      298779 299785 302787 309788 314781 317776 320767 321760
      326745 328738 328733
 1.50 423975 421973 419971 417971 416971 414972 414973 412974
      411975 410976 410977 409980 410981 412981 414980 415979
      417978 418978 419977 419978 421978 422976 423975
 1.50 319735 320728 318724 313722 308723 306727 305731 303740
      305750 306757 307763 308769 307773 308780 310779 310773
      312768 315759 317750 319741 319735
 2.00 313749 313747 313745 311744 310744 309745 310747 310749
      311749 312751 313749

$$





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