Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241817
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 25/0000 UTC THRU APR 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH MID/UPR LEVEL LOW LIFTING NEWD THRU THE
CNTL PLAINS INTERACTING WITH VERY MOIST PLUME OF MSTR..IE PWS
GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES..WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MDT TO HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINS ACRS MUCH OF ERN TX ACRS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND SE STATES THIS PD.  SATL/RADAR ALREADY SHOWING
EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CELLS DVLPG ACRS NCNTL/NW TX ALONG LEADING
HEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF WEAK DRY LINE.  THESE STORMS SHOULD
GROW EWD DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PD ACRS NE TX INTO
DEEPER MSTR PLUME/LOW LEVEL JET.  EXPECT THE STGR STORMS TO
ORGANIZE INTO GENL E/W BANDS AS 85H FLOW SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD A
MORE WSWLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
LIKELY GENLY PROPAGATING EWD ACRS SRN ARKANSAS/NRN LA EWD INTO NRN
MS/NRN AL OVERNIGHT.   BY SAT...EXPECT SLOW WEAKENING OF REMAINING
TSTM COMPLEX ACRS GA/SC WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING 85H WLY FLOW
AND MID LEVEL DRYING FROM THE WEST.  12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH IDEA OF ORGANIZED E/W HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACRS
THE SOUTH BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE N/S DIFFERENCES WITH THE
AXIS.  OF THE HI RES GUIDANCE...THE NSSL WRF IS WELL SOUTH OF ALL
THE GUIDANCE AND EARLY THOUGHTS ARE IT IS DVLPG ACTIVITY TOO FAR
SOUTH INITIALLY...SO IT WAS GIVEN THE LEAST WEIGHT.
OTHERWISE...GENLY STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND LATEST
RUNS OF WRF ARW/NMM...DEPICTING SOME 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS ACRS THE
BORDER REGION OF ARK/LA INTO NRN MS...THOUGH ISOLD AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ARE PSBL IN HEAVIER TRAINING CELLS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER
MS VALLEY

TO THE NORTH OF THE POTENTIAL QPF MAX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...UVVS WILL BE STRENGTHENING AHEAD
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID/UPR LEVEL CIRC.  SOME HEAVY SLOW MOVING
CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE LIKELY NORTH OF DVLPG 7H CIRC AS MODELS SHOW
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN DVLPG WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ACRS PARTS OF MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY LINGERING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT
BEFORE SYSTEM UNDERGOES RAPID SHEARING UNDER DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK
SET UP.  WHILE WELL REMOVED FROM DEEPER MSTR TO THE SOUTH...MODEST
PWS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL CIRC ITSELF COULD LEAD TO A
STRIPE OF 1 TO 2 INCH PLUS RAINS IN THE COMMA HEAD AND NEAR MID
LEVEL COLD POOL.  ISOLD HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE PSBL LEADING TO
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS WHERE NEAR STATIONARY BANDS/CELLS
DVLP. HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED FROM NE KS ACRS NRN MO/SRN IL
INTO PARTS OF CNTL IL.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z CANADIAN WHICH HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT
OF A FLATTER OUTLIER SOLN...MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN BRINGING CLOSED LOW ACRS VANCOUVER
ISLAND SEWD ACRS WAS WHILE STG JET ENERGY TO ITS WEST HELPS DRIVE
HEIGHT FALLS SWD THROUGH THE SRN GT BASIN BY LATE SAT LEADING TO A
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  GIVEN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WITH NON-CANADIAN
SOLNS...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH REGARD TO QPF THE
00Z EC LOOKED PARTICULARLY LIGHT ACRS THE NRN/CNTL SIERRA IN VIEW
OF DECENT 1 INCH PW PLUME DROPPING SEWD ALONG THE NRN CA COAST
AHEAD OF MDTLY STG VORT MAX SO WENT CLOSER TO NON-EC CONSENSUS
THERE.

...NEW ENGLAND...
SOME LIGHT SNOWS PSBL ACRS MTNS OF NRN VT INTO MAINE AS BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW KEEPS MOIST NWLY FLOW CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA.  FOR
MORE DETAIL ON WINTER WEATHER...SEE QPFHSD DISCUSSION.

SULLIVAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 553985 553979 551983 547993 543003 537012 522022 507031
      499035 486034 478031 467029 461025 459020 457016 456012
      453010 450007 446007 444005 444003 446997 449988 456965
      458958 461954 469949 469927 469912 469905 466902 460893
      457889 453886 450886 446884 442875 435859 402778 397770
      392761 383747 378742 372733 368730 364728 356725 351726
      347729 342730 341733 335741 329750 320756 316764 311773
      307780 257812 273818 280823 287829 293835 295840 295847
      295852 294855 293859 289869 286873 285879 284891 285912
      283922 282925 279929 266939 259943 255950 252958 256960
      259964 264973 261978 260983 262994 263999 265003 271009
      276010 280012 289010 298006 302004 305001 311995 321986
      333973 346960 353953 360946 367941 374934 378938 380943
      378954 375963 373972 374985 374000 373026 375028 381029
      386024 388020 393017 397016 401015 402016 407019 410021
      409025 405035 402039 398041 395043 390043 385044 378044
      370048 363053 361052 358055 358056 361060 359065 358069
      363074 368084 369088 368096 366099 366106 365113 359113
      352112 346110 343107 341108 340113 342116 349122 353124
      358126 364128 368130 367133 365139 365146 360157 362160
      362166 362170 365174 356182 354186 357191 356196 353197
      347197 344195 346205 350215 356225 362231 364234 369235
      378235 385240 393244 398247 403248 412248 418249 423249
      430250 439249 454245
 0.01 454245 460241 468242 473243 476245 484249 490255 495262
      498269 502277 508275 512274 513270 515265 515258 516251
      521251 521247 519242 516234 514230 514224 514211 517214
      521217 525218 528218 531215 535206 535199 534194 532184
      530175 526166 524163 520162 518161 518157 520153 521149
      525149 528152 532153 539152 541147 541139 541135 540128
      541121 543119 542112 542105 541093 540067 541052 541044
      542040 546017 550999 553985
 0.01 508219 508211 508204 506199 501198 495196 491193 487191
      484186 476180 474178 469180 462184 456190 450198 447201
      442201 440197 436198 434202 433207 436209 442210 450209
      460208 468207 473207 477205 484201 488199 492201 498209
      508219
 0.01 512116 510105 507099 504096 497092 495094 492099 488106
      482112 479124 481129 486131 491131 493130 498133 501136
      504137 505132 507125 508122 512116
 0.01 493666 492654 490643 487642 484643 481644 478647 474654
      471660 470663 467665 463667 461670 449670 447673 447678
      446688 443693 437699 434701 432703 431705 433708 438712
      439714 438718 436719 438722 440724 441727 437729 434727
      430728 429731 433730 438731 442731 444734 439740 437741
      435744 434748 435754 438750 440748 442749 445749 450746
      454740 462728 470716 479705 487694 490687 492680 493666
 0.01 448082 448080 447080 446079 444079 443078 441078 439079
      439081 439083 440086 442087 443087 444086 445086 447085
      447084 448082
 0.01 344182 345178 345173 344171 343168 339167 336167 332166
      330166 332167 333169 337170 339172 339177 339179 341183
      344182
 0.25 529066 529055 527049 515046 508046 503049 493052 488053
      483055 478059 473061 465068 461072 460079 458089 458094
      456096 451097 447102 442104 442108 443111 446123 447126
      451127 455123 457118 460114 466112 471109 478099 482095
      485090 493083 500083 505081 509081 514083 521083 525080
      527074 529066
 0.25 503186 502186 501185 500186 501186 502187 503186
 0.25 492222 492217 491214 489212 486210 483210 479210 477210
      475212 472213 471216 471218 474220 478221 481222 484223
      487224 490224 492222
 0.25 480685 480683 478683 477684 475685 474687 473688 472689
      471691 469694 469696 470697 471697 473696 475695 476694
      478692 478691 479689 480688 481688 480685
 0.25 466219 466217 461217 456216 453216 449217 445218 441222
      441224 446227 449226 453225 458225 462223 464221 466219
 0.25 458709 457706 454707 452708 451711 450715 448719 451721
      450723 449726 451726 452723 454721 455717 456715 457712
      458709
 0.25 436228 435226 433226 432226 430226 428225 428226 430228
      431229 433230 433229 435229 436228
 0.25 447041 446040 445039 445038 443037 441038 441040 441041
      443043 445043 446042 447041
 0.25 432109 432105 427104 424105 422108 417110 415111 413108
      413100 411091 409085 409081 408075 405070 401068 397069
      392070 387074 382077 379079 378083 380089 383091 387091
      389090 394091 401092 402095 401100 396103 391107 385110
      381113 376119 374126 375135 373143 370151 370156 372160
      373163 374166 376164 384156 390153 393151 394146 393140
      397136 407127 411123 417120 426115 430112 432109
 0.25 437918 437911 436904 433893 429883 426872 420852 412832
      408822 405818 402815 395810 393805 392796 390782 388780
      383780 369772 362767 355761 351758 348762 346766 345772
      346779 343783 340784 337783 334780 329781 324788 321795
      319800 315804 308809 307814 309821 311827 311833 312842
      308861 302882 296901 293920 291931 289943 287954 288960
      285965 279971 274980 273984 274988 277996 281999 284000
      290000 294998 299991 303981 306979 311979 315979 319977
      325970 330963 339947 348930 352921 357912 360905 361893
      364890 369891 372894 374899 381920 386929 387934 388940
      385948 384960 383967 383974 384978 387984 391981 394978
      398975 402975 406975 410974 417967 428951 431944 435934
      437918
 0.25 415224 416221 415218 414214 413211 415205 416202 412198
      409201 407206 404208 400206 393200 386196 378190 369186
      365188 366191 369200 374207 378213 373211 369212 366216
      368221 371223 376225 380227 382222 383219 387216 391215
      396217 403221 408224 413225 415224
 0.25 421178 423171 421166 419161 416159 414165 412169 409171
      406175 407180 411182 415182 420180 421178
 0.25 312956 312954 312952 312950 310950 310949 309947 308947
      308949 307952 306954 306956 307958 307960 308962 310960
      311958 312956 312956
 0.50 521065 521058 519055 515054 511054 504056 499059 493063
      487067 483072 483075 484076 489076 495075 502074 508073
      515071 518069 520066 521065
 0.50 488218 487217 486217 486220 486221 487221 488219 488218
 0.50 474099 475094 474091 471089 468088 466090 465095 463099
      462102 464104 466106 470105 472103 473101 474099
 0.50 456110 457108 456106 454107 454108 452109 451110 452112
      454114 455113 456111 456110
 0.50 429916 429905 428897 426890 423881 418867 413854 410846
      407839 403834 398835 392835 388841 386846 383852 381855
      378855 376855 375860 374867 374878 376886 378894 383907
      386914 388923 392928 393930 394936 391943 388950 387957
      387968 388971 390973 395970 398969 402969 409968 414963
      418957 423945 426938 428930 429916
 0.50 404217 400211 395205 389200 382196 376192 371192 371197
      376202 381207 385213 393212 399217 404217
 0.50 410110 410105 408100 405107 401110 398111 389113 382117
      379121 378126 378131 381135 385133 389130 395126 402122
      409117 410110
 0.50 366793 364789 362785 359781 358777 355773 352773 351778
      351784 352791 354797 356800 360801 363800 366795 366793
 0.50 361838 360834 357829 351821 348818 347813 345808 342805
      339801 336796 334791 331789 328791 325795 322806 321816
      323828 321838 318849 313856 309866 307876 307879 310879
      316871 319866 323865 321867 322871 322878 322885 318908
      317918 317924 319929 316973 323967 329959 339944 347924
      351916 353905 354878 354865 355859 357854 360846 361838
 0.50 299979 300975 299971 297969 294969 288972 285974 281981
      280987 280994 286997 291995 295990 297985 299979
 1.00 423928 423919 422912 418898 417893 413889 411884 411880
      409875 404864 401860 397856 394860 394868 398881 402893
      405897 401896 396898 391895 387899 387904 399924 400933
      397940 395945 391949 392958 394960 397960 402959 405957
      407959 409959 410955 410951 412945 415940 419937 422933
      423928
 1.00 392207 392206 390206 388205 387204 385204 385205 386207
      386208 387208 388207 389208 390208 392207 392207
 1.00 381199 380199 379198 378199 380200 381199
 1.00 349899 346864 347847 345831 343823 339818 337813 333806
      331806 330810 328816 329824 332828 335833 335841 335849
      335857 333873 330887 327902 326908 326917 327924 326933
      325940 325949 325954 328953 331948 337938 343926 346912
      349899
 1.00 294985 294983 293982 292983 290983 289985 289987 288988
      288989 290990 292989 293987 293985 294985
 1.50 411933 411926 410922 408921 407924 405927 403931 402937
      400941 398947 397952 400952 403948 406945 407940 410935
      411933
 1.50 344899 344893 344886 343880 342875 340873 339878 338884
      337889 337895 336900 335906 335909 339908 342904 344900
      344899
 1.50 339921 338917 335917 332921 330926 329930 328935 327941
      328947 331943 333939 335934 337930 338926 339921
 2.00 404943 404940 403939 403940 402943 403943 404943
 2.00 333928 333926 332925 332926 332928 332929 333928
 2.00 330937 331934 330933 330934 330937 330937

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