Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 040701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT MON MAY 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 04/1200 UTC THRU MAY 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...TRENDS...

OUR THINKING CHANGED VERY LITTLE...AND WITH MODEST SYNOPTIC
CONTROL ON THE PRECIPITATION AREAS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON QPF
ALSO CHANGED VERY LITTLE. AN ACTIVE 24-HOUR PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...THROUGH 05/12Z...WITH AT LEAST 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH
PRECIPITATION AREAS FORECAST AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
COLORADO TO WESTERN NEW YORK. ONE OF THE LARGER SCALE MAXIMA IS
EXPECTED IN SE NM / W TX...WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE DAY
1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. ANOTHER REGIONAL MAXIMUM IN
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST JUST DOWNWIND OF THE PLAINS THERMAL
RIDGE / CAPE AXIS...AFFECTING EASTERN NE THROUGH SRN IA INTO IL. A
SHORTWAVE ANALYZED OVER FAR WESTERN NE AT 04/00Z WILL PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA
LATER TODAY. FARTHER EAST...PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES MAY NOT ENTIRELY DISSIPATE BEFORE FLARING UP AGAIN AS
HEATING TAKES PLACE...AND AS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. ACROSS THE BOARD...WE KEPT FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY...WHILE
BLENDING THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST TOWARD THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NSSL
WRF. THIS RESULTED IN A PARTICULARLY HEAVY FORECAST...WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE...OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS / PERMIAN BASIN.
ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS WAS THE LATITUDED AT WHICH PRECIP
WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDWEST...WE DISCARDED
MODELS THAT WERE TOO FAR NORTH BASED ON THE EFFECTS OF THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AND ONGOING OUTFLOWS ON THE SAGGING SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 496291 517288 532250 539215 538199 536191 534186 532180
      530173 528169 524165 522160 516153 512154 509158 506163
      502159 497161 494165 493172 492181 493188 497191 504197
      514203 521212 521218 519222 518222 515223 512222 506220
      502215 500211 498208 493208 488209 482207 474210 464212
      461214 456215 447216 444217 441217 438219 435220 434222
      433226 431229 434230 438229 442230 445228 449227 453225
      456225 458227 460229 459233 450233 432239 432243 434248
      437251 442250 447249 453250 457250 463252 469255 473259
      477268 482277 488286 496291
 0.01 503663 501657 498654 494650 490649 483655 476661 473663
      469668 465677 458692 453702 447709 445706 446702 448697
      450687 452676 453668 441657 437665 435671 434679 435685
      434690 433703 430712 427722 421739 415758 409774 407779
      405782 403782 399783 397781 393780 390782 389785 387783
      385786 383791 382796 379800 378803 382805 383800 386799
      386803 385807 385815 384818 386824 389834 392844 394853
      395862 394868 391872 390879 390883 393886 396889 395894
      392915 390927 387938 385948 383963 381974 376983 371990
      366991 361991 340990 324993 316998 313000 308000 285003
      281005 275005 270011 267015 269017 273020 277023 281025
      286027 295030 316055 321060 324062 329063 338065 348068
      349072 346073 340073 329074 327078 323080 314083 311086
      312091 308102 307105 309109 312112 318114 322119 327125
      329129 333133 339138 349144 353146 357145 365142 368140
      370138 373140 378140 381137 383133 387130 389127 394127
      402127 406125 410122 415122 419126 417130 414136 411139
      406140 397138 390140 386143 387145 389155 388163 386168
      385174 388177 395177 398173 401167 407162 411160 415161
      418159 420154 422148 423143 426129 428123 432119 440115
      445109 450100 452091 456081 457066 457062 459060 463059
      466054 467050 468045 468041 467037 464033 461030 456028
      446026 430015 428010 430005 436995 438990 439984 440972
      441956 441950 442944 442937 443933 444921 440892 435867
      435863 436859 438856 445849 456840 463833 470826 476819
      480815 482810 486803 487792 486785 484780 480772 490757
      495747 498737 502726 503721 503713 502706 500701 499695
      499690 503684 503677 503663
 0.01 485164 483157 479152 474156 472151 471150 468142 463144
      460145 458145 454147 453149 450153 450157 447158 450164
      451168 450170 450178 455176 457174 459176 457182 462179
      463176 462173 464169 466167 470168 472166 477169 481165
      485164
 0.01 445087 445084 445082 445080 444078 443077 441075 440074
      439073 438074 436074 435076 434078 434080 434083 435085
      437085 437086 438087 440087 442088 444088 445087
 0.01 432183 431183 430183 429184 427184 425186 425189 426189
      428188 429187 430186 431185 432183 432183
 0.01 404104 404091 401088 397089 393094 381099 379101 376101
      370098 362096 358097 356100 357105 359107 364111 366128
      368130 370128 374122 378116 380114 382113 394108 397104
      400106 404104
 0.01 384196 384191 382187 379185 374182 370181 366182 363183
      364186 367188 371191 374193 379195 384196 384196
 0.01 366818 366809 365806 362807 358810 355816 352821 350826
      349833 350840 355838 357837 358833 361827 363823 366818
 0.01 321909 319906 317907 308908 301906 295902 289899 286897
      283898 280900 279904 279914 278918 279923 277927 277931
      277936 277941 281945 284949 285952 287955 290956 293954
      296952 297949 298945 299942 299937 299929 308929 314925
      317920 320911 321909
 0.01 290812 289807 287805 282801 280799 281796 282791 283788
      283779 281772 279763 276755 272750 268746 254742 246742
      239745 232747 223749 218753 215759 218774 219784 219790
      221798 224805 225813 225820 226829 228836 230846 233851
      238854 245853 250848 252841 252837 253832 253824 254816
      257810 259808 264807 268807 271808 276811 281812 286813
      290812
 0.01 269003 266998 262992 257987 254985 250985 244988 243993
      240995 238996 238000 245004 249009 254013 260009 265005
      269003
 0.25 517268 517260 515254 514248 512244 506234 499226 495215
      490213 486215 484217 484220 487225 491228 494233 498243
      501250 500255 497255 494250 492245 488241 472234 469240
      471245 478253 489271 496279 500283 505284 510276 517268
 0.25 525201 526195 524190 520187 515186 511184 508182 505184
      507188 512189 517191 519196 521199 523202 525201 525201
 0.25 499672 498668 496666 493667 492669 489672 488675 487678
      488683 489685 491687 492685 493683 495681 497678 498675
      499672
 0.25 489726 489718 487714 485713 485708 485704 482703 474702
      468704 464708 462712 460718 461723 464727 464743 464751
      468754 473753 477749 483741 487731 489726
 0.25 428826 435822 439830 445827 448822 446816 441812 432797
      426790 420788 414795 410801 402816 401825 400838 400846
      401856 403863 402870 402878 403890 402899 402905 401910
      399921 395939 391959 389970 387977 384986 378992 367001
      359001 350000 339000 331003 324006 318011 315018 310024
      308027 307033 310041 315045 321050 329054 334055 338054
      344055 349061 357063 362063 367064 369066 374067 375062
      377063 379062 381063 381067 390070 394071 396073 398076
      401076 406073 409074 411073 412070 411064 409060 409055
      410052 410045 410038 411032 410027 409022 407021 402025
      399024 401012 404005 411001 415994 419985 425969 428951
      429936 429923 429917 428909 425901 423892 424882 424870
      423856 423846 425836 428826
 0.25 400065 400062 398064 400067 400065
 0.25 399069 400067 398065 397067 396069 398070 399069
 0.25 384124 384125 384124
 0.25 381078 382076 382074 381073 380071 380069 378071 376073
      376074 375075 375078 376080 377082 379081 379080 381079
      381078
 0.25 356135 358129 357123 356120 352117 346111 339104 337102
      332101 330103 327107 331114 336121 342128 347134 350138
      354137 356135
 0.25 303021 303017 300013 298010 293009 288010 284011 280013
      280016 282020 287022 292022 296023 298024 301024 303021
 0.25 268767 269762 268758 265753 258750 251749 245749 237751
      231753 226757 223763 223771 224780 226789 229795 233798
      240800 244797 251786 260778 265773 268767 268767
 0.50 508256 509254 509253 508251 508248 507248 508247 508246
      508245 507244 505244 504244 505245 505247 506250 507253
      507254 508256 508256
 0.50 501277 502272 501269 500266 499263 497260 495257 493255
      490253 487254 487259 489262 490265 491267 493269 496272
      497273 499277 501277
 0.50 483247 483246 481245 480244 478243 477243 478244 479246
      481247 482248 483247
 0.50 424952 425942 425933 424918 421905 420897 420891 421881
      421872 419865 419863 415861 412866 410872 409879 408887
      404915 403931 400943 396956 393970 390983 388988 385993
      380997 378003 370009 368009 362008 351004 343002 337003
      328008 320013 319020 316026 313031 312033 311036 314040
      317043 327049 332051 336050 345046 347050 352053 356055
      361056 366054 370050 374046 377042 381031 385028 389026
      391028 392024 393016 394009 396004 397003 405997 409993
      412988 416976 419971 422965 424952
 0.50 414833 414826 411822 407824 405829 404834 403839 402846
      404851 408850 410845 412840 413835 414833
 0.50 399055 399048 398044 397039 394034 394036 391039 388043
      386047 385050 387054 389058 395058 399055 399055
 0.50 355126 353124 350121 348121 345117 342114 340113 338115
      341120 343123 346126 349130 351134 353133 354131 355126
 0.50 264761 263755 261754 252752 242752 237753 234755 229763
      227771 227774 229777 231778 234780 236779 240775 247770
      255767 262764 264761
 1.00 416928 417926 417924 417921 417919 416917 415915 415914
      414912 412911 410912 410913 410915 410917 409919 409922
      410924 410926 411929 412931 413931 414931 416930 416928
 1.00 407956 407952 405950 403952 402956 401959 400961 398963
      396967 396970 398972 400973 402971 403968 404966 405963
      407959 407956
 1.00 365036 365034 364032 365030 364029 363027 362027 362029
      361032 359034 358036 358038 358040 358041 359040 360040
      362039 363038 364038 365036
 1.00 353016 351011 349008 345006 340005 333008 325014 323017
      322022 319031 319035 321039 324043 327045 337044 340042
      343039 348031 350021 353016
 1.00 251757 250757 248756 246755 245755 243755 241756 239757
      238759 239761 239763 240763 242763 244763 245762 247761
      249761 251759 251757
 1.50 345017 346012 344008 336008 331012 326016 323025 322033
      324040 327042 330042 337038 341034 343031 344026 345017
 2.00 342017 343013 341010 336010 331014 327018 325023 324031
      326037 329040 334038 338034 340028 341019 342017
 3.00 336023 336019 336016 333017 331019 329021 328023 327027
      328031 330034 332034 333032 334030 335025 336023

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.