Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 031840
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 04/0000 UTC THRU MAY 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES---CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES

PW VALUES WILL BE INCREASING DAY 1 ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BECOME ORIENTED IN A GENERAL WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FROM THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES---THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY REGION---WITH PW ANOMALIES REACHING THE 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE INITIAL
ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO FOCUS EARLY
DAY 1 OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD ACROSS IN
THE 0000-1200 UTC TIME FRAME.  PRE 1200 UTC MONDAY WEAKENING
EXPECTED TO THIS INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION---FOLLOWED BY A
WESTWARD SHIFT OF WHERE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FORM IN
THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHEAST WY WHERE THE NEXT UPPER
DIFFLUENCE MAX IS FORECAST AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES AS IT PUSHES AND
DEVELOPS EASTWARD IN A REGION OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW
INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE SOMEWHAT FARTHER
SOUTHWARD QPF SOLUTION AXIS OF THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED
MEAN AND GFS WERE FAVORED OVER THE FARTHER NORTHWARD AXES OF
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES GUIDANCE.  THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PAST THE DAY 1 TIME FRAME AS THE UPSTREAM
TROF EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM EJECTING TROF---LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS AND INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD
OF THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL SUPPORT A QUICK INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN NM INTO WESTERN TX.
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO SPAN THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD INTO DAY
2---LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DAY 2 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.  FOR THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD---PRECIP TOTALS KEPT IN THE
MODERATE RANGE---BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS
DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TIMING AROUND 0000 UTC TUESDAY WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN--SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES

THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS
HANDLED FAIRLY SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL
ALSO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST---INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED---WITH ISOLATED
HEAVY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES
ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

FLORIDA

UPPER TROFFING WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FL STRAITS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY 1 PERIOD.  SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY
1 TIME PERIOD---CONFINED ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WHERE THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST.
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH PW AXIS ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA--WITH LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS EXPECTED.  INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES DAY 2 ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS THE UPPER
TROF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 518268 519260 517257 514252 513247 512240 509237 502228
      498221 492219 490224 493235 498243 499247 497248 494245
      487238 484241 482241 481239 478235 475237 473242 472247
      477258 487275 493283 499291 504292 507290 510287 513282
      518268
 0.01 474872 488837 491786 511734 505696 490685 480691 461718
      458728 449747 441763 431778 427783 422791 407817 403825
      401829 400833 399844 399851 398856 398865 397869 396880
      396893 394901 391924 387944 385959 379976 371991 365996
      358000 351004 342008 332007 329005 324005 320006 315005
      308002 294994 283998 277997 272998 268998 264004 263009
      265011 270017 272019 275021 281026 291031 297035 301037
      300042 297046 298049 300050 303051 306053 316054 322055
      324057 331060 339059 349060 353061 355063 355066 353072
      350075 346078 342078 339075 333075 330076 328079 330083
      330087 329091 326094 325098 324105 324111 330126 336131
      343136 345138 349139 357141 362141 367142 370142 373139
      376135 378130 386125 392121 399118 407117 414118 418124
      419127 417130 415134 392144 395151 392162 389169 389174
      390177 403165 407159 408156 411155 414158 418159 420155
      423144 425131 428123 435117 440114 446109 451101 455083
      456078 457072 458059 462058 464055 467046 468043 467040
      463033 461030 455029 450028 446024 439019 436011 433007
      431001 430991 429981 430969 444940 448930 452921 460904
      467888 474872
 0.01 430101 426091 426087 424084 421081 419075 416078 413081
      411083 407082 401082 397085 389091 385092 382095 379096
      376094 376091 375085 372081 368084 367086 367090 369095
      368101 367106 365115 366122 369126 373124 377119 383113
      389111 393109 402106 405105 406102 406098 408096 410098
      410105 412108 416111 419109 424104 430101
 0.01 387192 388186 384183 379182 375183 372181 368182 364182
      362184 366187 369190 374193 377194 383195 386194 387192
 0.01 319913 317910 313909 309907 306904 299901 288901 279903
      277908 277912 278916 277921 279923 283925 292927 303927
      308927 312925 317918 319913
 0.01 290812 289808 288806 284802 280799 275796 264793 257794
      251797 246800 243804 240808 238814 240819 242820 245819
      247814 248811 251809 256807 263805 269807 273810 284813
      290812
 0.25 502278 502274 501270 500267 499264 497261 496259 493256
      491258 491260 492263 493267 495270 497273 498276 500278
      502278
 0.25 463878 467839 472789 494745 499716 495707 482711 474725
      468745 461766 451785 444805 441820 438828 434837 424848
      422850 418853 414853 411857 408868 404880 402894 401909
      399922 397935 395950 393965 391972 390977 386989 382001
      390022 393035 392043 389047 390052 391054 396057 406054
      413048 415043 417036 420021 420008 421994 421985 421978
      426954 430940 431933 434928 440918 445910 451901 456891
      463878
 0.25 445041 443038 443039 444041 445041 445041
 0.25 408014 408012 408010 408009 407007 407005 408003 407000
      406998 406000 405003 405005 405007 405010 406012 406014
      407017 408014
 0.25 359034 354029 346031 339032 332030 328031 325033 323035
      322039 328042 335046 342044 348040 354038 359034
 0.50 459869 460863 458861 452860 446860 441864 440866 437864
      433867 428872 425879 422884 421887 419886 417884 414883
      412891 411899 409906 404919 400934 398952 397968 397974
      399977 403977 412969 416964 419958 424944 428930 431923
      433918 439906 446895 453884 457876 459869
 0.50 413033 413026 412022 409023 406023 404021 400018 398021
      397027 400031 405031 407031 409035 412035 413033
 1.00 424916 425911 424905 422904 419907 416914 412922 409928
      406938 409945 413945 416941 422924 424919 424916

$$





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