Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 201848
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 21/0000 UTC THRU APR 22/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR




DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE MS VALLEY WITH A
DEEP UPPER LOW POSITIONED NEAR THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER.  A SURFACE LOW...ANCHORING A LARGE OCCLUDED
FRONT...CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGER TROUGH
LIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.  AS ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER SCALE FLOW LOW PIVOTS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST BACK INTO THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED INTERIOR REGIONS LATER
TODAY.  STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AN ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. COINCIDING
WITH 50+ KT 850 MB WINDS...PWS EXCEEDING AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ARE EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WITH THE MODELS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD SUPPORT FOR 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGES ALONG THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC..THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED...BUT FAST-MOVING...CONVECTION ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
REGION.

...FLORIDA...

ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE...CONVECTION FIRING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF INTO NORTH FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THIS EVENING.  SUPPORTED BY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF...PWS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS.

...WESTERN U.S....

UNDERCUTTING THE LONGSTANDING RIDGE IN THE WEST...A BROAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN CA...CLOSING
OFF A MID-UPPER LEVEL CENTER OVER SOUTHERN CA BY EARLY TUE.  THIS
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOURAGE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED...GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS FROM THE SOUTHERN CASCADES...SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA INTO
THE COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN CA.

PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 22/00Z
 0.01 565894 561903 557907 554912 551915 549919 544928 539937
      536945 525958 520963 512968 504972 493973 487972 483970
      479968 476964 472959 469954 467949 454935 443921 438913
      434906 430897 430891 432886 434883 437880 447875 450872
      453867 451865 448865 444865 440866 436862 433854 432850
      434845 434841 432841 430840 426843 422848 419847 416852
      415853 412848 410843 408839 404830 399823 394824 390823
      386825 384829 381832 380835 379838 380842 382847 385850
      386857 387868 384879 383889 382895 382902 381908 381916
      382931 382937 383945 383952 384956 388967 389979 388981
      385979 380961 377956 373961 370963 366963 365953 360952
      356952 354952 353949 355944 358934 362923 364912 365904
      365896 365888 366882 366876 368871 370860 372850 364847
      356848 354846 351842 350838 350834 352828 354824 357820
      369807 381795 386788 386785 384786 380788 372794 365801
      356806 348810 344812 342815 336821 329826 324831 319838
      316841 312841 315830 317827 319821 324814 327807 331799
      336791 341782 343777 339776 334776 330779 324788 321793
      313792 309793 307797 304805 301815 298819 294820 286826
      282831 281836 279839 278843 277853 280875 281900 281906
      279911 276920 271938 271943 273947 276955 276960 277966
      279970 279974 281979 281984 277991 275001 273009 269013
      264013 260017 254017 249010 246006 242003 236002 234999
      233995 232988 232983 234979 236968 236962 238958 236950
      235946 235939 233934 234929 234923 235918 236905 237882
      238877 238872 239864 242854 246843 247837 247831 248827
      248821 249801 252783 257777 261771 266763 271758 282753
      287745 292738 299732 310719
 0.01 310719 316710 320704 323699 332693 336689 341684 349677
      359670 367662 372658 379656 392652 398652 405650 411648
      416644 421640 425635
 0.01 525682 519678 514672 508666 503658 497651 492643 487635
      479633 471632 464632 455630 447629 444629
 0.01 525254 521251 519247 519242 520240 522237 534220 537215
      538207 535198 530196 526197 520202 515214 511223 506223
      502220 499216 494215 492216 489215 486212 480216 493230
      490236 484234 480231 475232 471233 469235 465239 459237
      442240 437240 432241 432244 434246 439247 463246 464250
      459251 455253 452256 448257 439259 435259 431262 428266
      428272 430277 434279 434286 437292 445295 461293 493282
      499280 505284 510286 516284
 0.01 526166 523160 520156 517155 516153 512152 511149 506145
      505143 502142 499141 498144 501147 506153 510157 513160
      518164 519167 522168 526166
 0.01 484250 482248 481248 479247 477248 475250 477252 478253
      480253 482252 484250
 0.01 493148 494143 493140 489135 484131 481127 478127 476129
      472133 470138 477139 480138 483140 486146 489150 493148
 0.01 466105 463102 458101 456103 455100 454098 450094 445092
      438089 433091 428087 424089 427095 430097 429101 425105
      428106 434105 443111 444105 444101 448104 453105 455103
      458103 460106 463107 466105
 0.01 450220 450215 447214 440213 432211 428206 425201 420200
      414200 410204 407206 404205 401201 395196 388194 378187
      379183 372181 359180 354182 351184 351186 364192 372194
      376198 378201 381203 385206 394208 398213 406221 405225
      403227 396225 394227 395229 399232 406232 413235 420235
      423230 427225 432222 437223 442220 448222 450220
 0.01 450078 450075 449073 448071 447070 445068 443068 442067
      440067 438069 437071 438073 439073 441074 442074 443075
      444076 446077 448080 449079 450078
 0.01 426060 420060 417059 416056 414054 411054 407054 398050
      392047 389045 385047 384049 381049 377046 373041 374034
      379024 381018 380010 377997 373987 368974 363963 358959
      353958 349958 350953 347942 344937 340932 332924 328924
      326929 326947 324960 321965 319971 321983 326988 330991
      334993 337993 339991 344002 349005 353008 353012 352015
      348020 346024 348031 355038 362039 367041 369044 366047
      362052 357053 356055 356058 357059 358063 359069 362069
      362067 365066 368067 371068 373070 373078 375083 379084
      380081 383073 384071 387070 392073 396071 399072 401070
      406073 408075 411075 415071 422067 426060
 0.01 425812 425810 426808 424806 423808 422809 422811 422813
      422815 421816 420818 420820 420823 419829 420829 421831
      424822 423820 424817 424815 425815 425812
 0.01 409112 409103 408096 402104 397101 397105 395103 396106
      395107 393105 393109 391111 387111 384111 382112 378115
      374119 373123 373125 376131 382131 386126 391124 398113
      405114 409112
 0.01 400141 400139 397138 395140 393142 391142 387143 387145
      389148 390148 392149 394147 396149 397150 398148 400143
      400141
 0.01 393174 393172 393170 394168 393167 394167 394165 392163
      391162 389164 387166 386166 386168 386171 387173 387175
      389178 391176 393174 393174
 0.01 396096 396094 396092 396089 397087 397085 396085 395087
      394087 394089 394091 394094 394096 392098 394098 396096
      396096
 0.01 351204 351201 349198 349194 350190 348187 347187 344187
      341188 340190 340192 341195 342197 345200 347201 349204
      351204
 0.01 344184 345182 345180 345178 345176 345173 345171 345169
      345168 343166 341168 340170 339172 340174 340175 340177
      340179 341181 342182 343183 344184 344184
 0.25 556856 556845 555836 552820 550804 547790 542777 537767
      531756 526746 520734 516730 512728 509725 507718 503708
      501699 501691 501677 500669 499666 497663 491665 487660
      485653 482647 477645 472645 464644 460643 455641 446636
      442637 437640 429646 418652 408659 397663 386668 376673
      369678 362685 349705 342715 340719 346720 356716 365712
      371710 377707 387705 395704 406705 411709 412714 412718
      413726 412733 400748 395757 392762 392769 394772 399771
      401769 407768 410772 423767 427769 433766 442761 446761
      450765 457769 461771 466771 471772 479771 488773 493775
      499778 506782 510786 512792 514797 515803 515810 515821
      514827 512834 510840 505843 501842 498839 492840 488846
      482855 480859 479866 479882 480898 482904 482910 484917
      488922 496929 505937 510938 516938 521937 526934 532929
      539922 544914 549902 552895 554887 556872 556856
 0.25 516264 516263 515261 514259 514258 513256 513255 512253
      511252 511251 509250 508251 508254 509254 510257 511260
      512263 512264 513266 514266 515266 516264
 0.25 389201 387200 386198 384196 383195 381194 379193 378193
      376194 377195 378196 379197 380198 382199 382200 384201
      385202 387202 389201 389201
 0.25 397798 393797 390799 388800 385802 383804 382806 382808
      384809 386809 389807 390805 392803 394800 397798
 0.25 391755 395747 391748 388753 384758 379760 373758 370761
      369763 370772 369779 369784 372785 377781 381777 384772
      388767 390760 391755
 0.25 373188 371187 370185 368185 366184 364184 366186 367187
      369188 371188 373189 373188
 0.25 365027 366025 366023 366021 366019 366016 365015 365014
      363013 361012 360014 359016 359017 360018 361020 361022
      361023 362025 363026 364027 365027
 0.25 321763 322757 320754 315749 313748 309749 304751 299754
      292756 281763 272774 269778 268784 267788 263790 259791
      256793 255800 258806 260809 260813 259819 258825 257833
      256839 254846 249857 247870 246884 244899 242913 241923
      242932 244938 244946 243961 242970 243978 240983 238986
      238990 241994 246997 250001 256004 263001 264999 265994
      268977 268969 266962 266953 266943 266927 267919 267910
      267902 267894 270863 270846 272832 275818 279813 280811
      282807 284800 285798 288796 292791 296788 302785 307781
      310775 315771 319767 321763
 0.50 552870 553860 552851 551835 547819 544806 539794 536790
      532788 529790 528793 530798 532805 533814 534821 534827
      531841 527852 523863 519876 516887 514894 515902 516909
      518915 521918 526919 530917 534913 541906 544901 546895
      549884 552870
 0.50 507743 504735 500729 491724 486720 482723 482728 480732
      475729 473727 474723 479719 484707 488694 488690 485689
      484684 482685 471695 467699 464706 461713 461717 457718
      452718 453713 460700 464687 467681 472677 477673 479669
      479665 478658 474655 464652 457650 452646 448644 443643
      441642 438645 433650 422656 414664 409669 401672 394673
      386675 376680 370685 366690 366694 367696 373699 380698
      388697 400695 409693 416693 418695 418700 418707 418713
      420718 425721 427728 431728 438726 444726 447727 449730
      449741 455747 459751 471750 480748 486749 496751 501751
      505749 507743
 0.50 419740 417739 414740 411743 408746 404749 401753 400756
      398761 399765 404764 408763 410758 411753 413750 416745
      418743 419740
 0.50 304768 304763 301763 294765 290768 285771 280775 277779
      275784 280787 285785 290780 294778 299774 302770 304768
 0.50 273805 272801 268798 264796 260795 259795 256799 259803
      261805 264811 266814 268810 271808 273805
 0.50 269826 269822 268820 266817 264817 264819 263821 262825
      262829 263833 264836 266835 267833 269829 269826
 0.50 264894 257876 253887 251897 250905 249909 245919 245927
      246933 247938 248945 246972 247977 247980 246983 243987
      244992 254996 258996 260990 260983 261977 262971 262964
      261935 260923 261911 262901 264894
 1.00 460666 458662 455661 449660 444658 441652 436656 433662
      436670 437680 435688 432694 429700 428704 430706 434712
      436715 439715 445712 449707 453700 455693 454685 454681
      454678 460666
 1.00 252972 253970 253968 252966 251968 250970 251972 252972
      252972
 1.50 449679 449675 447671 444677 442683 439688 436694 434701
      435705 438707 442706 446702 449697 449692 448687 449679
 2.00 443691 441691 441692 440694 439697 440698 442697 443696
      443693 443692 443691

$$





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