Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 051859
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 06/0000 UTC THRU MAY 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC...

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HEIGHT RISES
LATER TODAY...AND A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE PAST THE
AREA...OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. STILL...THERE WAS A NOTEWORTHY
SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAD PRODUCED AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER IA/MO/IL MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE HAD CONTINUED TO MOISTEN NEAR THIS FEATURE
AND DOWNSTREAM...ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING TOWARD PA
AND ADJACENT STATES. AMPLE HEATING AND SOME MID LEVEL ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD YIELD AN ORGANIZED SWATH
OF AT LEAST 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE BLENDED THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST TOWARD
THE 00Z ECMWF...OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE TOOL...AND IN THE SHORT
TERM...THE HRRR...WHICH GAVE US A SWATH SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS. THIS KEEPS WITH CONTINUITY...AND EMPHASIZES THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION...NOT TIED TO THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. MODELS HAVE BEEN MISSING ON THIS UPSTREAM.


...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST / GREAT PLAINS...

IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE REGION OF DIFLUENT MID AND UPPER FLOW ALONG AND NORTH
THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THIS
REGION. GEFS ANOMALIES INDICATE PW VALUES 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN NV TO WESTERN
CO. ALTHOUGH WE WERE FAIRLY GENEROUS WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...GOING WITH A CONSENSUS OF BOTH GLOBAL AND
HI-RESOLUTION MODELS...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS IN THIS REGIME.

IN THE PLAINS THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS MAY
SURVIVE OR DISSIPATE ONLY BRIEFLY BEFORE PICKING UP FARTHER EAST.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN NE NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANOTHER EVENT DURING AFTERNOON HEATING...AS
LOW LEVEL INFLOW REMAINS STRONG. MEANWHILE...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL HAVE REACHED WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT
WITHIN A PLUME OF MOISTURE MIGRATING NORTH AND WEST OUT OF
LOUISIANA. MANY OF THESE FEATURES CONVERGE TOWARD NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN / CENTRAL / EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WHILE FAIRLY COMPLICATED...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.
OVERALL THEY DISPLAY SIMILAR QPFS SPATIALLY. WE ESPECIALLY FAVORED
THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...00Z WRF-ARW AND 00Z GEM REGIONAL. ALL OF
WHICH ALLOWED US TO KEEP GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WE STAYED AWAY FROM THE NAM WHICH WAS TOO FAR NORTH IN
MANY AREAS...AND THE SREF MEAN WHICH DID NOT SEEM TO CAPTURE ANY
MESOSCALE DETAIL IN THE PLAINS...WHERE MOST GUIDANCE SEPARATES
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE STRONG FORCING IN THE TX PANHANDLE /
WESTERN OK FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN NORTH TX / SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OK.


...FLORIDA...

A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF THE KEYS TO THE
BAHAMAS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OWING TO A DEEPENING FETCH OF EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS. WE INCREASED AREAL AVERAGE 24-HOUR AMOUNTS UP TO
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND AN AVERAGE
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.


BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 563024 563016 561013 556007 553004 550004 541005 538004
      537000 537990 531978 518966 515962 514957 509950 506936
      503926 501921 498918 492911 489907 486906 479902 475892
      475887 473882 462868 459864 455862 447857 445855 445850
      444842 440829 435807 433795 431778 418740 419719 418711
      415708 412704 410700 402697 397695 390696 382703 379707
      379715 386735 382743 378746 377753 368766 367772 368780
      369788 363805 362811 360815 354821 351826 349831 350837
      352843 355847 359848 363847 364846 368842 371833 375825
      379821 382820 385819 386820 390822 392828 392836 390847
      387851 386855 382861 380866 382870 384873 386872 391870
      393868 396869 401875 405879 406884 406890 407896 404907
      402913 398917 385926 375926 366929 357934 354937 348938
      338937 328936 312932 305937 299943 295947 293953 292958
      296960 297962 294963 288963 285964 285971 286983 286987
      284988 279988 266988 265993 268997 281006 282012 283016
      285020 287018 289015 290020 295025 304028 312026 317023
      319019 329015 338011 342011 345013 348016 356020 363021
      375018 384022 386025 387028 387031 382040 370048 363054
      357056 357059 353061 346065 344070 345076 344084 346090
      348094 352099 362101 369099 374099 379100 386101 388104
      386109 382111 379114 377118 373125 372131 370135 370142
      370147 370154 373156 378162 378167 376173 374175 370173
      367173 367176 370179 378185 384177 389176 394174 397171
      399165 402162 407160 410159 415159 416161 419157 425136
      428125 431121 434117 438115 441118 442124 442130 437141
      438145 440149 443152 446157 449161 451167 451175 453179
      457182 461179 461175 457177 454174 454168 457165 458159
      455151 454144 457140 463133 470126 478123 482123 486120
      492117
 0.01 492117 501112 510108 515100 520091 524085 524080 524077
      527077 533077 541074 545074 549071 555062 558058 560051
      562035 562026 563024
 0.01 535217 536209 536199 537186 538175 542141 542132 539124
      534120 531119 529121 526121 524124 522132 517145 513149
      506148 504150 504153 508159 508163 505161 500159 497165
      491164 485163 483165 484171 487177 489181 486184 485187
      488187 488191 484198 480201 472208 465210 460214 458215
      455214 450216 443215 438216 433218 429223 428226 431228
      436230 457224 461227 467226 471226 472231 471236 472241
      474243 478244 483247 488252 491257 496269 500276 503275
      505272 494248 487237 483236 482231 487227 490227 493230
      495236 497242 501247 505252 507258 510265 517267 521247
      526236 532225 535217
 0.01 480673 477672 474676 472680 470685 468689 467694 468702
      471701 474697 476693 478689 479683 480678 480673
 0.01 465239 465234 464233 462233 459233 455233 453234 450233
      448235 448237 449240 452241 454239 457239 460239 463240
      465239
 0.01 420128 420126 420125 418124 416124 415125 414127 414129
      414132 414134 415135 416134 417132 419130 420128
 0.01 405215 405212 403209 401206 399205 398203 394202 392204
      391206 393208 395210 397213 400215 403216 405215
 0.01 340177 340176 339174 338174 337173 335173 334173 335174
      336175 338176 338177 340177 340177
 0.01 330731 330725 328721 322712 317707 308705 298708 289713
      273721 266726 259732 252737 248743 245751 243755 243760
      245765 244769 240777 236783 229789 225796 224801 224805
      227813 232815 234819 236823 239826 245829 250829 253826
      256817 259815 262817 268822 275825 282824 286822 287817
      285814 285812 289811 300810 306809 310806 316801 320798
      321795 325787 326776 325765 325761 326756 327751 329742
      330731
 0.01 314918 313905 311894 307886 301882 298880 292880 287887
      283889 283894 289899 295906 298914 303920 307922 310922
      314918
 0.01 259002 255997 252995 248994 240992 236993 233995 232998
      233001 237007 237017 237021 241024 243024 245022 247014
      254011 257004 259002
 0.25 554034 553029 551026 547027 545030 541036 536040 529044
      527046 527052 529055 532056 538055 544052 548047 552039
      554034
 0.25 531202 530191 533182 531173 526166 521160 518161 517168
      519172 519175 515175 513176 514180 516184 518192 522200
      524203 526204 531202
 0.25 518238 519234 519228 517226 516224 513222 510221 508223
      507227 507229 508233 509236 512239 514241 516241 518238
 0.25 521020 520013 517010 504009 498997 491995 484996 480994
      476988 474987 472989 470994 468999 462002 456001 451999
      443995 440994 438991 437985 436982 438980 442976 446971
      445962 444958 441957 435954 426952 421951 416949 407944
      399940 393938 387937 379938 373939 360943 349946 340948
      329952 321960 306973 303978 303980 306982 311984 314985
      314989 315992 317994 320994 330990 335990 341992 350998
      356999 359998 365996 371996 379997 385999 391000 397003
      404011 407017 408023 405035 405042 403046 395039 392040
      390043 388048 387053 388056 388059 386061 383063 382067
      377069 375072 374076 375083 381085 384089 386092 389091
      395090 399089 403091 405097 405104 404108 402109 398113
      386116 384118 384123 390125 399132 407127 407122 409119
      415118 417115 411114 409112 410109 411104 411095 413088
      414084 416081 419075 423070 429069 431075 435076 440074
      448078 450078 450075 448070 444067 440067 434068 430067
      429059 432054 435053 440053 447053 454054 459053 463051
      463045 466041 470040 471046 475050 479053 477057 472059
      467061 464062 463067 465068 468068 474066 480066 487066
      491062 493055 495049 508034 515027 521020
 0.25 479215 479212 475212 474213 472214 468214 466215 464216
      464221 466222 467220 469219 471218 474217 477216 479215
 0.25 475106 475104 475103 473101 472100 470099 469100 468101
      467102 466105 466107 467110 468110 469111 470110 471110
      473109 473108 475107 475106
 0.25 454103 454097 452093 447094 443092 441090 437090 434091
      431089 427083 423084 422088 426094 432099 436096 439098
      445098 450102 453104 454103
 0.25 427822 428814 427806 426791 425784 423775 419766 415767
      413771 409773 407770 400763 394756 391757 387762 382769
      379773 380776 384778 388780 390784 394787 400795 407801
      415804 418815 419830 419841 421844 424839 427822
 0.25 410152 410149 408148 403146 401144 399139 393139 390141
      388146 390151 392153 395157 398157 404157 407155 410152
 0.25 398737 398735 398733 398730 398728 396726 395728 395729
      394731 395733 396736 397738 398738 398737
 0.25 322728 321722 317715 313712 308711 302712 296715 284720
      275728 268736 262745 257754 256758 258762 261766 263772
      262778 260782 257788 260792 260797 263802 267805 273806
      280806 287804 295804 302803 307801 311797 315792 318786
      319780 318772 317763 319750 322739 322728
 0.25 247800 246798 244797 242798 241799 241800 240801 240803
      241805 243803 245804 246803 246802 247800
 0.50 530178 530176 530175 528174 527175 528177 528178 529178
      530178
 0.50 481017 481011 478009 475010 471013 470016 466019 463023
      462026 466030 471030 474028 478024 479022 481017
 0.50 451027 450024 447024 443024 439019 435019 431023 429030
      429039 434042 439043 443041 445038 446034 449033 450029
      451027
 0.50 422796 421792 421787 420785 418781 416780 413781 411782
      411786 411791 413795 414798 416800 417802 419805 421804
      421799 422796
 0.50 420055 420053 419050 418050 416049 416050 415052 416054
      417055 418055 420055 420055
 0.50 414073 414065 413062 410061 408057 406054 401054 397055
      395058 394062 392066 389067 385074 385080 387084 390084
      393083 400081 405077 411074 414073
 0.50 417994 417987 415979 412975 407972 400970 396967 391964
      387960 384956 379952 369947 365947 357949 346952 340954
      335956 326964 324968 325976 320986 320989 324989 330987
      335986 341987 346989 354991 366987 369988 377990 389992
      395993 401996 405999 410002 415998 417994
 0.50 397775 397772 396772 394770 394771 394772 395773 395775
      397777 397775
 0.50 320737 320730 318722 315718 311716 307714 302715 293719
      284725 276731 270739 265747 263752 263758 268765 270771
      270779 275789 275793 277799 281800 287800 300799 305797
      310794 312791 315786 315779 314772 313766 313759 316748
      319742 320737
 1.00 378976 377971 374967 368963 360958 355956 350957 341960
      335965 333969 334974 339981 348983 353984 358983 366980
      375979 378976
 1.00 315738 315732 314726 309720 306718 302719 296724 289728
      282733 278739 274745 273749 273755 275764 283780 286789
      293790 296792 301791 305790 307788 309785 307781 304779
      304775 306766 308758 313743 315738
 1.50 362976 364973 362970 360967 355965 353963 348962 345963
      341966 341970 344973 346977 350979 355978 359978 362976
 1.50 310741 310734 307731 302730 297731 288735 281741 279745
      278749 278760 279765 281767 285766 288767 292769 296769
      300767 302764 305755 308746 310741
 2.00 307739 306736 303735 294737 287741 282744 281752 280761
      282764 286762 292761 295763 299763 301760 302755 302747
      306742 307739

$$





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