Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 312336
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
CROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES YIELD PRETTY DECENT SURFACE BASED CAPE. THE FRONT HOWEVER
SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUR IMMEDIATE AREA BY THE TIME T-STORM
ACTIVITY INITIATES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
HOLT...WHEELER...EASTERN CUSTER...AND EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY
COUNTIES. THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN OR VERY NEAR THESE AREAS ABOUT THE
TIME STORMS BEGIN TO FIRE...BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST.
WILL NOT CARRY ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AS
THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A QUICKER
PASSAGE WOULD KEEP ANY STORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA ALL
TOGETHER. BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE LOW...BUT NOT AS LOW AS THE VALUES
EXPERIENCED TODAY...AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
NOT ANTICIPATING CRITICAL WILDFIRE DANGER. SHOULD WARM QUICKLY INTO
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FROM ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH BROKEN BOW AND
NORTH PLATTE NEAR THE COLD FRONT. COOLER 60S EXPECTED FARTHER WEST
IN AREA OF INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...WESTERLY WINDS INDICATED AT 650MB AND
700MB WILL PROVIDE AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS THE SOUTHERN PNHDL AND
NERN CO WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE SERN PNHDL...SWRN NEBR AND
CNTRL NEBR. THIS CURRENTLY INDICATED BEST BY THE NAM AND GEM
MODELS WITH A WEAKER SIGNAL FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF. RAISED POPS TO
NEAR 40 PERCENT IN SWRN AREAS. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED.

ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AS AN H3 JET MAX INCREASES TO 125KT ACROSS NRN NEW MEXICO. A WEAK
DEPARTING JET MAX ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TO PROVIDE AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS COLORADO INTO SWRN NEBR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POP TO 30 PERCENT INTO SWRN NEBR THU
AFTN AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT INTO FAR SWRN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO JUSTIFY
INCREASED POPS. RESULTING QPFS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 5 TO 15
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THURSDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT COOLING FOR RAIN OR SNOW AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...AT THAT
TIME MUCH OF THE FOCUS WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ERN CO...FAR SRN
NEBR AND KS...WITH POPS ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

ON FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S. AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACH 7.5 TO 8.5
C/KM...SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP. WHILE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE...DRY LOWER LEVELS SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANYTHING SHOULD
REACH THE GROUND.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY. COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO NRN NEBR FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE SRN AREAS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MAINLY 70S BOTH DAYS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOME AREAS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A MODEST RETURN OF MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
20000 FT AGL AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS WEDS AFTN. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE KVTN TERMINAL AROUND 15Z
WEDS AND 17Z WEDS FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ204-206-208.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB





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