Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KLBF 271119
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
619 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WAS STRETCHED FROM A LOW IN CENTRAL MANITOBA THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. THERE WAS ALSO
AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO...TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LOOP OF
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE SAME AREA
WITH THE AXIS OF DILATATION PARALLELING THE FRONT AND INVERTED
TROUGH. THE DEFORMATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS AND A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE WYOMING-NEBRASKA LINE AND ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WEAKENS...A LOBE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE SITS OVER NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY OR TONIGHT. WITH
CLOUDINESS SCATTERING OUT TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN
THEY WERE YESTERDAY AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT WILL BRING LOW STRATUS
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN SANDHILLS AND
IS LIKELY TO REACH AN AINSWORTH-THEDFORD-ALLIANCE LINE BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE 27.00Z DETERMINISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE EASTWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TRANSITORY RIDGE ATOP THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...HOWEVER TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THERE REMAINS
SUPPORT FROM THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS A
NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE FRONT IS SHOWN TO RETURN NORTH AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS GOING
FOR THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA WILL SEND
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  SOUNDINGS
FROM WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INDICATE LESS THAN IDEAL MOISTURE
PROFILES...BUT SUPPOSE THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
COULD SPARK OFF A SHOWER.  FOR NOW WILL ONLY CARRY A SPRINKLE
MENTION AS EVEN IF A SHOWER FORMS...VERY LIGHT QPF WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND A
RESULTANT LACK OF OMEGA WILL PROMOTE DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS.
HIGHS BY MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...A FEW LOWER 80S MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THE
TIMING AND RETURN OF THE FRONT.  THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN
THE MID LEVELS FOR A SHOWER/STORM ACROSS OUR FAR WEST THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT CHANCES ARE 20% OR LESS AT THIS POINT.  THE GFS MODEL
SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER THESE
POPS ARE DEEMED SUSPECT AS TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS LACKING.  THE
BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
FRONT RETURNING NORTH ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH THE
TIMING...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM EARLY SATURDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY.
THE SUPERBLEND PROCEDURE IS SUFFERING FROM THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT...PRODUCING BLOTCHES OF POPS AT DIFFERING TIMES AND
DIFFERING PLACES.  RATHER THAN TRYING TO DEFINE WHERE STORMS WILL BE
THIS WEEKEND /TOO FAR OUT/...WENT AHEAD AND BROAD-BRUSHED LOW END
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES INDICATES NEAR SEASONAL
CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF WARMING MID-WEEK AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND.  AT THIS POINT NO LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS IN EITHER
DIRECTION ARE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

LOCALIZED MIST IS EXPECTED AROUND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WITH PATCHY VISIBILITY 3-5SM THIS MORNING. THEN AFTER 16Z...THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
AFTER 01Z...SOME 5000-8000 FOOT AGL CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING ANW...VTN AND MHN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.