Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 191120 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE UPPER LOW WHICH PRODUCED UP TO 52 INCHES OF SNOW IN COLORADO
HAS DRIFTED EAST INTO WRN KS THIS MORNING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FALLING UNDER THE LOW. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS WEAKENING ACROSS NCNTL AND SWRN NEB
THIS MORNING. THE MODELS DRAG THIS AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 15Z-18Z. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING SETTING UP A
WINDY AND COOL DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THESE WINDS ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE
PANHANDLE.

THE STRONG WINDS BEND AROUND THE BLACK HILLS PRODUCING
CONVERGENCE ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES. THE HRRR SHOWS
SPRINKLES DEVELOPING BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN WITH
DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S BY NOON...NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL
WOULD BE EXPECTED.

HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 50S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE
MODELS ARE BRINGING IN COLD AIR ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ACROSS
MANITOBA. THE RESULT IS H700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -10C
BY 21Z. SOME SUN IS EXPECTED BUT SKIES WOULD LIKELY CLOUD UP IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN KS WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND BE ABSORBED THE A DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN ONTARIO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PULL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE FCST AREA.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S. WINDS STAY UP AT 10 TO 15 MPH NEAR ONEILL WHERE THE WARMER
LOWS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MONDAY INTO MID WEEK WILL SEE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST MERGE NEAR/NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL DRAW SOME COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR TO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH MID WEEK AND
ARE TRICKY. THE DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO
FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...HOWEVER WITH THE RECENT HEAVY
RAIN...THOUGHT MODELS ARE A TAD TO DRY SO DID RAISE SLIGHTLY BUT
COULD SEE THEM BEING HIGHER...ESPECIALLY BY WED. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE WEAK CLIPPERS MAY
BRING A BRIEF INCREASE OF CLOUDS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
AIR TEMPS TO LIKELY FALL TO OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WEEK...UNLESS BL MOISTURE ENDS UP BEING
MORE THAN EXPECTED FROM RECENT RAIN. MEANWHILE AFTERNOON SUN WILL
HELP OFFSET THE COOL CONDITIONS AND BE ABLE TO AID IN MIXING THE
BL...SEASONAL HIGHS /50S AND 60S/ EXPECTED. ONE CONCERN WITH
HIGHS IS THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING. FAIRLY DRY
AIR AT THE SFC SO NOTHING EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE CROSSING THE DESERT SW/4 CORNERS. A TRANSITION FROM NW TO SW
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN FOR WET WEATHER. MODELS NOT IN THE BEST
OF AGREEMENT ON TIMING...BUT DO PUSH THE WAVE ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF WINDOW
OF RETURN MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS TRACK
AND THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR
RAIN...ALBEIT BETTER FOR SOUTHERN ZONES THAN NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SATELLITE SUGGESTS THE DEFROMATION ZONE CAUSING MVFR CIGS/-RA MAY
HAVE STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

A COLD FRONT IS RACING SOUTH WHICH SHOULD DRY THIS AIR OUT ENDING
THE RAIN AND LOW CIGS. THIS SUGGESTS VFR WOULD BE WIDESPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA BY 15Z-18Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC





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