Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 171903
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
203 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
TX PNHDL INTO WRN CO. SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS SWRN INTO WEST
CENTRAL NEBR WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS IS
TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S EXCEPT MID 40S
ERN PNHDL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY IN NWRN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN TURN
WESTWARD INTO WRN NEBR AND THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND NERN
COLORADO. PWAT VALUES 0.75 INCH TO NEAR AND INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT VALUES OF 175 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL.

FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS IN SWRN NEBR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN NCTRL NEBR.
EXPECTING A DECREASE OR END TO SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO SWRN
NEBR...THEN REDEVELOPMENT AS THE NOSE OF A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NWRN KS/NERN CO/SWRN NEBR BY
21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KTS
ALONG WITH ML CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME AFTERNOON SUN POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS TO HELP DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE. APPEARS THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 21Z INITIATION TIME THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE FA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. DIFFERENCES LIE IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...THE NERN HALF OF FA IS
MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHER QPFS NEAR A HALF INCH WHILE
SWRN AREAS A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH. LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NCTRL. MODELS INDICATE
A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH LOWING TO 40 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE EFFECTS FROM THE SLOW MOVING
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LOCATION OF THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW...NORTHEASTERN CO...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH VARIES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST WITH THE LOW...WHILE THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST.
THE ACTUALLY STRENGTH WILL PLAY A BIG PART INTO THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY SW ZONES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME SW CONUS/PACIFIC DRY AIR STARTING TO GET
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGER GFS BRINGS THE DRY SLOW WELL
INTO THE CWA BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING. THE NAM JUST NOSES THE DRY
AIR INTO SW NEB. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS OF
SW NEB INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE DRY
SLOT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO END UP WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE OR THERE...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT DRY JUST YET.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS PUSH ACROSS KS.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NORTHERN
LOW EVENTUALLY WILL ABSORB THE SOUTHERN LOW AS WE GET INTO THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE WRAP AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY END BY SUN MID DAY. COOLER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT SOME GUSTY N/NW WINDS. AFTER 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR SAT...TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SUNDAY.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS. THIS LEAVES US BENEATH NW FLOW AND A
FEW WEAK CLIPPERS TO ADD SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO VERY SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOME LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR





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