Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 030459
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ONVECTION CHANCES HEADLINES THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. THE BEST
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE QPF APPEARS TO COME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS...AND A TROUGH NOTED NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...CURRENTLY NEAR ALBERTA. THIS PATTERN IS ALLOWING
A LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS ONTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. AS OF 19Z...A QUICK
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SFC WOULD INDICATE THE TROUGH NOW EAST
OF KAIA...LOCATED WEST OF A KOGA TO MRRR1 LINE. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT HAS JUST BEGUN ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...FROM
CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY SOUTH TO NEAR KIML. THE CU IS WELL IN IT/S
INFANCY STAGE...WITH FULL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TWO 1-2 HOURS /OR
MORE/ FROM NOW. DETERMINISTIC AND LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN TWO INITIAL AREAS OF TSTORMS...FIRST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE OTHER FROM CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS...HOWEVER THE LATEST 02/17Z SPC
HRRR SUGGESTS A BROKEN LINE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SFC
TROUGH...WITH THE LINE ADVANCING EAST WITH TIME. LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOW DECREASING WITH THE INCREASED
AFTERNOON MIXING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS TD/S NOW BELOW 10C.
SO...NOT COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THE NOTION OF THE EXTENDED BROKEN
LINE OF TSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED.
WILL CARRY ISO-SCT POPS EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE FA THIS
EVENING. LLJ DOES RAMP UP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...MAY POSSIBLY SEE A
LINGERING STORM ACROSS OUR EAST BEYOND 06Z...OR ADDITIONAL WEAK
CONVECTION DEVELOP ELSEWHERE...BUT CHANCES WILL BE MINUSCULE AFTER
06Z TONIGHT. IN TERMS OF SEVERE...LATEST THERMO PARAMETERS
INDICATE UPWARDS TO 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...HOWEVER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL WHERE TOWERS ARE CURRENTLY GOING UP...SO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT
A FEW STRONG/LOW-END SVR STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR ESPECIALLY
GUSTY WIND AS SOUNDINGS REVEAL A INCREASING INVERTED-V PROFILE.

SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT AND/OR SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE
BETTER FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  BY 21Z...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UPWARDS OF 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...THUS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CHANCES OF STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BETTER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IN THIS AREA.  ONCE AGAIN
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UNSETTLED PERIOD AHEAD AS A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY. EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING...AIDED BY A
COMBINATION OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE AREA AND A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MAY BE A BIT
OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
EVENING...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS...ESPECIALLY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H850MB FRONT
IS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND THE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH DURING THIS TIME. GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT
THIS WILL BE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. HAVE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN A FURTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG LIFT SHOULD ENSURE RAIN. SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS...SO WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION
GOING. CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME STRONG OR PERHAPS EVEN A SEVERE STORM
OR TWO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT MAY VERY WELL BE SOCKED IN WITH
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO SUCH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND THIS WOULD
CUT DOWN ON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND OTHERWISE MORE ROBUST
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD
CLOSELY.

ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS WITH ONLY SLIGHT OR LOW
CHANCE POPS. THEN THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. AGAIN
APPEARS A NEGATIVE TILT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL QUICKLY HELP
PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MORE RAIN LIKELY AS
THIS OCCURS INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR KLBF AND KVTN. A
LEAD DISTURBANCE MAY BRING 5SM -TSRA TO KLBF AFTER 03Z/4TH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG









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