Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 220902
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA TO THE
MISSOURI BASIN DRIFTS EAST TODAY SETTING UP A COOL SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW FROM KANSAS. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WRN NEB WHICH MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
MODEL SUGGESTS A NARROW MIDLEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL DEVELOP NEAR
VALENTINE TONIGHT WHICH IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...LESS SO BY
THE OTHER MODELS. THE OBVIOUS CULPRIT IS 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THE FORECAST IS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S TO NEAR FREEZING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A SUNRISE SPECIAL THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRATUS
DEVELOPING WITH THE ONSET OF MIXING AFTER SUNRISE. A SLIGHT DELAY OF
3 HOURS IN THE MOISTURE RETURN WOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT HEATING
AND MIXING TO PRECLUDE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...IF THE MODELS
ARE TOO SLOW THEN CLOUDS COULD FORM BEFORE SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM
THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE COMPARED TO A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND HAVE PUT THE BREAKS
ON THE POPS. WILL LEAVE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE MOST PART.
LIFT IS MARGINAL AND NOT ORGANIZED IN ANY ONE AREA...SO THINKING A
MORE SHOWERY TYPE RAIN WILL OCCUR. ACTUALLY KIND OF HARD TO PIN DOWN
EXACTLY WHERE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WOULD LIKELY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THEN LATER IN THE
DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN
COLORADO...AS CONDITIONS BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE LEADING TO A
SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY THE
ACTUAL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. THESE
STORMS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST...BUT DO EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...DOESN/T
APPEAR TO BE REAL ORGANIZED...AND CAN/T JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS AT ANY
ONE LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS RATHER INTERESTING.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. SATURDAY
LOOKING TO BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. TRIED TO LIMIT POPS TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS REASON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THE MODELS DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WHERE IT
SHOULD CLOSE OFF. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ON THIS OCCURRING...AND BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
DIG THE SYSTEM SOUTH INTO TEXAS LEAVING US WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
FARTHER NORTH...AND HAVE A CLOSED H700MB LOW CENTER IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO THEY HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS...NORTH AND WEST ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. OVERALL THIS STRONG CLOSED SYSTEM IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT
IN THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE TONIGHT...AND WON/T GET CARRIED AWAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES JUST YET. ALSO TONIGHT/S SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT
SLOWER...SO THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT THE KLBF TERMINAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 10000 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDS
MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WEDS EVENING AND DIMINISH TO UNDER 10
KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB




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