Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 180005
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
705 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING OGA...
IML AND LBF. FOR OGA AND IML...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND AN
ISOLATED FUNNEL MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 3SM OR LOWER AND CEILING TO 1000 FEET AGL
OR LOWER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






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