Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 242046
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY...WITH A TROUGH
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THIS SETS UP AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
TO THE WEST. A SECOND LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SW KS...WITH A WARM
FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. CLOSER TO HOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT 2 PM WITH MORE CELLS DEVELOPING SINCE THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN ACTIVE EVENING IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SO FAR LIFT IS GOOD BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO FAR
UPDRAFTS HAVE PRODUCED GOOD VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LACK OF SHEAR THE STORMS ARE NOT ROTATING MUCH AND COLLAPSE ON
THEMSELVES. VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW NEB HAS
RESULTED IN A GOOD INVERTED V SOUNDING...THUS COULD SEE SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS. LOCALLY LARGE HAIL MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER
WITH IT FALLING PRIMARILY THROUGH THE RAIN SHAFT...RAIN WILL ASSIST
IN MELTING AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET LARGE HAIL TO THE GROUND. STORM
MOTION IS LIMITED SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND IS MOST LIKELY.

TOMORROW WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT EAST WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. STILL MILD ACROSS SW NEB WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO N CENTRAL AND KEEPS HIGHS CLOSER TO
60. A BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS
PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST
TO NEAR HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WEST OF HWY 61 SUNDAY WITH
CHC POPS EAST TO HWY 83. SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN DRY IN THE EAST. AS
NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN
TO CHANCE AND REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES IN. CONFIDENT IS
LOW HOWEVER THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT AVBL. DRY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS
HIGHS TO LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO
THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S
THURSDAY THEN SOME LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SW
NEBRASKA...OTHERWISE FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS SHIFTED TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND DRIFT EAST/NORTHEAST.

STILL EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN NEB THEN IMPACT
TO TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCE IN THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AT THE
TERMINALS...AND MONITOR FOR AMENDMENTS. TOMORROW MORNING THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS IN THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK









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