Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 012319
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PIVOT MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING. THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST WEAKLY ORGANIZED DISCRETE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
OTHER THAN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AND NO STORMS SHOULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST LATER THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 50F BY MID SATURDAY
MORNING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY ROBUST DRYLINE
SURGE SATURDAY AFTN FOCUSED ALONG HIGHWAY 20 WEST OF VALENTINE.
DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PINE RIDGE AND THE WRN SANDHILLS
SOUTH THROUGH IMPERIAL AROUND 21Z. THE NAM DID SHOW ABOUT 20 TO 30
J/KG OF INHIBITION SO POPS ARE ISOLATED. MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR TO 450 MB OF 30 TO 35 KT COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG
OR SEVERE STORM DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. THE BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBER IS CLOSE TO 50 AT THIS TIME AND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK SMOOTHLY
CURVED.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS SATURDAY RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 700 MB.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A TRAJECTORY FROM THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE A TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST CROSSES CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL THUS BE IN PLACE WHEN A
SURFACE FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
IS NOT REAL FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE LIFT SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
IT CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...SOME
UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS CAN BE
SEEN WITH THE PRESSURE LEVELS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS OVER
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON THE 300K AND 305K
SURFACES. THE INSTABILITY...AT ABOUT 0C FOR THE 800MB BASED LIFTED
INDEX...IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL. AS A RESULT...ONLY A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN AN AREA OF GENERAL RAIN OR
SHOWERS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 0.7 INCH...SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG A BROKEN BOW-NORTH
PLATTE-IMPERIAL LINE AND SOUTH WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF SHARPLY
NORTH OF THAT LINE.

AS THE ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES...ANOTHER NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A
GOOD MOISTURE TRAJECTORY CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FROM
THE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS. AS THE CYCLONE
MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD...WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. BY EARLY
THURSDAY...THE DRY INTRUSION OVERTAKES THE CYCLONE AND BRINGS AN END
TO THE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS40
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIHGT AROUND 5 MPH WILL BECOME SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 18010G18KT AFTER 17Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG







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