Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 201727
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1227 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WINDS ARE OFF A BIT TODAY BUT STILL IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUST TO 35 MPH. COLD AIR CONTINUES ALOFT AND H700MB
TEMPERATURES RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO AROUND -8C TO -12C. THE
MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO YESTERDAY WITH DEVELOPING
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS. THIS IS VERY TYPICAL OF COLD AIR ALOFT IN
THE SPRING MONTHS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RISE INTO THE 50S...A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ALSO FALL OFF INTO THE MID 20S
WEST TO NEAR FREEZING EAST. WINDS TONIGHT BECOME VERY LIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SUPPORTING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

INITIALLY IN THE LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ONE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINS ACROSS SE CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SECOND LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL. STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSES RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO DEVELOP AND LIMIT
WARMING. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE NE. A
DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS FOCUS BETTER
MOISTURE/LIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER CO/KS BUT AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO THE SW...COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY LIFT INTO FAR SW NEB.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION FOR
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND BRING AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
0.75 INCHES OR HIGHER. NOT A WASH BUT COULD SEE SOME SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.

MODELS STRUGGLING ON WHERE/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT CROSSES THE
ROCKIES. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EC HAS BECOME THE STRONGEST AND
SLOWEST OF THE MODELS...WHICH FAVORS HIGHER PWATS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION AND SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WEAKER THAN THE
EC...HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLE FAVORS MORE OF A OPEN WAVE. THE FASTER
AND WEAKER THE SYSTEM...THE LESS MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION
AND LESS PRECIP WOULD BE EXPECTED. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS AT 50
PERCENT OR LESS WITH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST SEEING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MOISTURE. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECTED AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT DIURNAL SWING AND KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

BY THE WEEKEND THE LOW SHOULD BE EAST...HOWEVER MODELS IN
AGREEMENT BRINGING A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPS SEASONAL TO SEASONALLY COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

STRATOCUMULUS HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED TODAY DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT. THE BASE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS NEAR 8000 FT AGL...AND WILL
NOT HAMPER ANY AIRPORT OPERATIONS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR. WINDS
WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING
OVER 30 KTS INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME
LIGHT WEST TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR






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